Hangzhou China Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Jaime Faria vs Hugo Gaston Prediction

Jaime Faria

Rank: #68
59%
VS

Hugo Gaston

Rank: #97
41%
Expected Total Games: 25.0
Predicted Winner: Jaime Faria

Why the Model Favors Jaime Faria

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +4.4 Hugo Gaston
Recent form +4.3 Jaime Faria
Recent record by level +3.6 Jaime Faria
Surface fit +3.5 Jaime Faria
Overall record & opposition quality +3.2 Jaime Faria

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Jaime Faria. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jaime Faria

  • Current #68 2026-09-21
  • 3 mo ago #97 2026-06-22
  • 6 mo ago #157 2026-03-16
  • 9 mo ago #152 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #118 2025-09-22

Hugo Gaston

  • Current #97 2026-09-21
  • 3 mo ago #117 2026-06-15
  • 6 mo ago #107 2026-03-16
  • 9 mo ago #97 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #105 2025-09-22

Player Metrics

Jaime Faria

Form Index: 59.8
ELO Rating: 1800.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1809.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 148.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.4
Clay: 26.0
Grass: 20.3
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 88.5

Hugo Gaston

Form Index: 63.5
ELO Rating: 1631.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1603.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 90.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.1
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 13.2
Serve Rating: 93.5
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Jaime Faria
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Hugo Gaston
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sho Shimabukuro (2-0) hard Hangzhou 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Colton Smith (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Andre Ilagan (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Guido Ivan Justo (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jaime Faria
vs
0
Hugo Gaston
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jaime Faria is favoured in the Hangzhou Round of 16, with the forecast giving him 59% to Hugo Gaston’s 41%. The match is projected to last 25.0 games, pointing to a competitive contest.

Match Analysis

Gaston has a small advantage in the serve-and-return matchup, so Faria may have to work hard to create openings. Their serve and return profiles are close, but Gaston’s edge in this area gives him a clear way to keep the score tight. Faria’s stronger hard-court profile and record against higher-level opposition help explain why he is favoured despite that disadvantage. His recent win over Terence Atmane came after a demanding three-set match, while Gaston advanced in straight sets against Sho Shimabukuro. Faria also took a set from Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open, a result that adds weight to his recent record.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.0 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jaime Faria - Hugo Gaston) +0.9 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Faria is projected to hit 7.5 aces and 4.7 double faults, compared with 4.0 aces and 3.3 double faults for Gaston. Faria’s slightly stronger serving profile accounts for the ace gap, while the hard court’s consistent bounce should give both players a fairly balanced setting for serving.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.3 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Jaime Faria 7.5 + Hugo Gaston 4.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.9 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Jaime Faria 4.7 + Hugo Gaston 3.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jaime Faria

Expected 7.5 aces

Hugo Gaston

Expected 4.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jaime Faria

Expected 4.7 double faults

Hugo Gaston

Expected 3.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jaime Faria's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (37.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Gaston’s serve-and-return advantage is the main threat to the forecast. If he uses it to limit Faria’s chances to attack, his lower fatigue from the tournament could also help him sustain pressure.

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