Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 32

Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #9
51%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #28
49%
Expected Total Games: 41.2
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

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Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #9 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #6 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #7 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #8 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #9 2025-05-26

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #28 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #13 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #19 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #16 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 47.0
ELO Rating: 1827.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1896.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.8
Clay: 34.4
Grass: 37.2
Serve Rating: 94.2
Return Rating: 89.9

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 55.6
ELO Rating: 1826.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1874.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.4
Clay: 30.6
Grass: 21.5
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 85.5

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Toby Samuel (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (1-0) clay Hamburg 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-1) clay Hamburg 159 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-1) clay Hamburg 129 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Arnaldi (1-2) clay Rome 176 min

Jakub Mensik
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Titouan Droguet (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ignacio Buse (0-1) clay Hamburg 62 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-0) clay Hamburg 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexei Popyrin (1-2) clay Rome 131 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alex de Minaur
vs
0
Jakub Mensik
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, the Round of 32 on clay produces an intriguing contrast as No. 9 Alex de Minaur meets No. 28 Jakub Mensik in a Grand Slam night session. The model gives de Minaur the narrow edge — 50.76% to Mensik’s 49.24% — and forecasts a tight, physically demanding affair of about 41.17 total games.

Match Analysis

On paper the matchup is remarkably even. De Minaur carries the higher ranking (9) and a slightly superior Elo (1827.47) while Mensik’s Elo (1826.79) sits almost identical. Mensik posts a higher form index (55.57) than de Minaur (46.99), but fatigue is a major contrast: de Minaur has spent 174 minutes on court in this tournament versus 348 minutes for Mensik, a difference that can loom large on slow clay. Both players show modest surface strength indices (de Minaur 34.40, Mensik 30.62), suggesting neither is a clay specialist, while their serve and return profiles are strong across the board (mean serve indexes ~94–95; de Minaur’s mean return index notably high at 89.89). Recent results underline the matchup narrative. De Minaur arrives unbeaten in his last three clay outings, including a long 174‑minute win at Roland Garros and a gritty victory over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Hamburg. Mensik has also navigated tough matches at Roland Garros with two straight wins (including a five‑seter versus Mariano Navone) but his form includes a shorter loss in Hamburg; the cumulative 348 minutes suggest some wear from back‑to‑back long matches.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 41.2 Most likely outcome: 41 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alex de Minaur - Jakub Mensik) +1.0 Most likely spread: +1 (Alex de Minaur wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 15.76 for the match with expected double faults at 5.96. On clay, predicted aces are naturally suppressed by the slower surface and higher bounce, while expected double faults can tick up as rallies and match length increase. Neither player holds a markedly superior serve rating, so while both can produce service winners, fatigue—particularly on Mensik’s side—could push the expected double faults higher late in rallies.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.8 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alex de Minaur's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (25.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

De Minaur’s slight edge comes from ranking, a higher return capability and fresher legs after fewer minutes on court. The key factor to watch is physical resilience: if Mensik’s accumulated minutes translate to a drop in serve consistency, that could decide who breaks and ultimately carries the match.

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