Brussels Belgium Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Arthur Fils vs Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction

Arthur Fils

Rank: #10
80%
VS

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #58
20%
Expected Total Games: 25.8
Predicted Winner: Arthur Fils

Why the Model Favors Arthur Fils

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +11.3 Arthur Fils
Age +6.0 Arthur Fils
Surface fit +5.9 Arthur Fils
Overall strength +4.2 Arthur Fils
Serve & return game +3.6 Arthur Fils

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 80% for Arthur Fils. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Arthur Fils

  • Current #10 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #25 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #42 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #30 2025-10-20

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #58 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #41 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #81 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #86 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #91 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 46.9
ELO Rating: 1951.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1971.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 110.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 46.3
Clay: 40.9
Grass: 13.5
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 90.0

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 54.4
ELO Rating: 1736.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1721.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 262.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.7
Clay: 16.9
Grass: 31.5
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.2

Recent Matches

Arthur Fils
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Fils
vs
0
Jan-Lennard Struff
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Arthur Fils is a strong favorite, with an 80% win probability compared with Jan-Lennard Struff’s 20%. The expected total is 25.8 games, pointing to a match that could extend beyond two routine sets.

Match Analysis

Fils’s ranking and stronger overall profile give him the edge, while his better return game could put pressure on Struff’s serve. The hard court also suits Fils more strongly, giving him advantages both in the exchange and when trying to take control of a point. Struff’s recent results are excellent: he has won three straight matches in Brussels, all in straight sets. Fils has had a less consistent stretch, with a loss in Shanghai before beating Alex Michelsen in Brussels, but the recent-level comparison still favors him. Struff has also spent 262 minutes on court this tournament, against 110 for Fils, a sizeable difference as the semifinal approaches.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.8 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Fils - Jan-Lennard Struff) +3.0 Most likely spread: +3 (Arthur Fils wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Fils is projected for 9.1 aces and 2.3 double faults, while Struff is expected to hit 8.7 aces and 3.0 double faults. Their serve projections are close, so Struff’s ability to keep landing first serves could help him stay competitive, though Fils has the stronger return.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.7 Most likely: 15 aces Per player: Arthur Fils 9.1 + Jan-Lennard Struff 8.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.3 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Arthur Fils 2.3 + Jan-Lennard Struff 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Arthur Fils

Expected 9.1 aces

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 8.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Arthur Fils

Expected 2.3 double faults

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Arthur Fils's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (45.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Struff’s serve is his best way to disrupt the forecast: if it keeps Fils from gaining ground on return, the ranking and surface advantages may matter less. The extra time Struff has spent on court makes sustaining that level a further challenge.

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