Paris Paris Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Arthur Gea Prediction

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #39
43%
VS

Arthur Gea

Rank: #44
57%
Expected Total Games: 25.2
Predicted Winner: Arthur Gea

Why the Model Favors Arthur Gea

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Age +6.4 Arthur Gea
Serve & return game +5.2 Jan-Lennard Struff
Surface fit +2.7 Arthur Gea
Recent record by level +2.1 Arthur Gea
Overall strength +0.8 Jan-Lennard Struff

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 57% for Arthur Gea. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #39 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #41 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #83 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #84 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #101 2025-11-03

Arthur Gea

  • Current #44 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #82 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #143 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #168 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #227 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 53.6
ELO Rating: 1787.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1761.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.8
Clay: 16.9
Grass: 31.5
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 87.2

Arthur Gea

Form Index: 45.0
ELO Rating: 1846.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1848.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.3
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 93.8
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Jan-Lennard Struff
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Arthur Gea
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jan-Lennard Struff
vs
0
Arthur Gea
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Arthur Gea is a narrow favorite, with a 57% chance of winning to Jan-Lennard Struff’s 43%. The forecast points to 25.2 games in this Paris Round of 64.

Match Analysis

Gea’s age profile is the largest separator in his favor, and he has the better hard-court fit. His Shanghai wins over Ben Shelton and Jakub Mensik support his case, though he most recently lost to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Struff has the stronger serve, which gives him a clear way to pressure Gea and helps explain why the matchup remains close. He is also ranked higher, 39th to Gea’s 44th, and his recent hard-court wins over Novak Djokovic and Nuno Borges show the level he can produce, despite losing to Jiri Lehecka in Basel.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jan-Lennard Struff - Arthur Gea) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Arthur Gea wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Struff is projected for 8.1 aces and 3.1 double faults, while Gea is forecast at 7.4 aces and 3.2 double faults. Struff’s stronger serve profile supports his small ace advantage, while the similar projections suggest neither player has a large serving edge.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.9 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Jan-Lennard Struff 8.1 + Arthur Gea 7.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.3 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Jan-Lennard Struff 3.1 + Arthur Gea 3.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 8.1 aces

Arthur Gea

Expected 7.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 3.1 double faults

Arthur Gea

Expected 3.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jan-Lennard Struff's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Struff’s serve is the most likely route to overturning the forecast. If it does not give him enough control to limit Gea’s opportunities on return, Gea’s hard-court advantages could decide a close match.

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