Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jan-Lennard Struff: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Jan-Lennard Struff comes mainly from overall record and opposition quality, and from a slightly better surface fit for hard courts. Supporting that, Struff arrives with a higher ranking (44 versus 76), a superior Elo rating (1698.1 versus 1536.6), and a stronger form index (42.57 versus 28.69). Struff’s surface strength index is marginally higher (14.98 versus 12.88), which is reflected in the small model boost toward him on hard courts. The model also awards a modest 4.3 percentage point boost to Carabelli due to age, and a 0.6 point tilt for recent workload toward Carabelli. Both players show similar service profiles by the mean serve index, so there is no large serving gap to exploit. Carabelli has a slightly higher mean return index (88.57 versus 84.96), which supports his ability to create pressure on Struff’s serve. Fatigue reads zero for both in the current event, so match-to-match workload is not an immediate factor. Recent form favors Struff by results. Carabelli has lost his last three matches (Cincinnati, Toronto, Estoril), while Struff has one win in his last three outings, including a long 144 minute victory in Cincinnati and two recent defeats.