Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Karen Khachanov vs Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #10
51%
VS

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #98
49%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

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Ranking Trends

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #10 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #17 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #27 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #26 2024-10-14

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #98 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #129 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #51 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #43 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #40 2024-10-14

Player Metrics

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 28.7
ELO Rating: 1740.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1747.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.8
Clay: 18.8
Grass: 16.6
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 85.8

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 81.8
ELO Rating: 1242.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1653.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 85.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.7
Clay: 10.3
Grass: 12.2
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.3

Recent Matches

Karen Khachanov
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Karen Khachanov
vs
0
Jan-Lennard Struff
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Almaty tournament in Kazakhstan, Karen Khachanov faces Jan-Lennard Struff on hard court. The match is expected to be closely contested, with Khachanov slightly favored to win at a probability of 50.82% compared to Struff's 49.18%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is 24.0.

Match Analysis

Karen Khachanov, currently ranked 10th, has a form index of 28.65 and an Elo rating of 1740.35. His surface strength index stands at 13.79, indicating a solid performance on hard courts. Notably, he has a higher mean serve index of 96.76 compared to Struff's 95.50. However, both players exhibit similar return indices, with Khachanov at 85.77 and Struff at 85.34, a marginal difference. Khachanov enters this match with no cumulative fatigue, suggesting he is fresh, while Struff has accumulated 85 minutes of fatigue during the tournament. Struff, ranked 98th, has demonstrated improved form, highlighted by his recent victory over Mackenzie McDonald at this tournament. His recent performances include a tough loss to Novak Djokovic at the US Open but a strong win against Frances Tiafoe prior. Khachanov, on the other hand, has struggled in his last three matches, losing all and failing to advance past the early rounds.

Final Prediction

Karen Khachanov's higher ranking, better serve index, and lack of fatigue give him a slight edge in this matchup against Jan-Lennard Struff. A crucial factor to watch will be Khachanov's ability to serve effectively, as it could significantly influence the outcome of the match.

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