Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Prediction

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #47
39%
VS

Nuno Borges

Rank: #53
61%
Expected Total Games: 24.6
Predicted Winner: Nuno Borges

Why the Model Favors Nuno Borges

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +3.5 Nuno Borges
Age +2.9 Nuno Borges
Recent record by level +2.3 Nuno Borges
Overall record & opposition quality +1.0 Nuno Borges
Overall strength +0.6 Nuno Borges

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 61% for Nuno Borges. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #47 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #42 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #81 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #86 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #90 2025-10-27

Nuno Borges

  • Current #53 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #49 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #49 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #46 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #46 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 65.7
ELO Rating: 1814.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1771.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 224.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.6
Clay: 16.9
Grass: 31.5
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 87.1

Nuno Borges

Form Index: 49.9
ELO Rating: 1756.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1749.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 169.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.2
Clay: 24.0
Grass: 22.0
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Nuno Borges
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-1) hard Basel 108 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mika Brunold (2-0) hard Basel 61 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (1-2) hard Shanghai 118 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Facundo Diaz Acosta (2-0) hard Shanghai 102 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (0-2) hard Beijing 110 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jan-Lennard Struff
vs
1
Nuno Borges
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

Nuno Borges is a modest favourite, with a 61% win probability to Jan-Lennard Struff’s 39%. The forecast points to 24.6 games, suggesting a competitive match rather than a clear mismatch.

Match Analysis

Their hard-court profiles are almost level, so Borges’s projected advantage is not based on a major surface mismatch. The forecast instead gives him a slight lean in surface fit and broader record, while Struff’s higher ranking and stronger recent form make this a narrow call. Both arrive with a significant win in Basel. Borges beat Casper Ruud in three sets, while Struff’s latest win came against Novak Djokovic, also in three. Those results underline the quality each can produce, and leave little between them on recent evidence.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.6 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jan-Lennard Struff - Nuno Borges) -1.0 Most likely spread: -2 (Nuno Borges wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Struff is projected to hit 8.7 aces and Borges 8.1, with 2.4 and 1.8 double faults respectively. Their serve strengths are closely matched, and the medium-paced, consistent hard court should give both chances to use the serve without making aces their only route to points.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.0 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Jan-Lennard Struff 8.7 + Nuno Borges 8.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Jan-Lennard Struff 2.4 + Nuno Borges 1.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 8.7 aces

Nuno Borges

Expected 8.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 2.4 double faults

Nuno Borges

Expected 1.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jan-Lennard Struff's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Struff’s slightly higher projected ace count could prove decisive if he turns it into sustained pressure on Borges’s service games. His win over Djokovic is a reminder that he has the level to upset the forecast.

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