Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Yannick Hanfmann vs Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #59
43%
VS

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #47
57%
Expected Total Games: 25.6
Predicted Winner: Jan-Lennard Struff

Why the Model Favors Jan-Lennard Struff

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +4.5 Jan-Lennard Struff
Recent record by level +2.8 Yannick Hanfmann
Overall record & opposition quality +2.2 Jan-Lennard Struff
Overall strength +2.0 Jan-Lennard Struff
Fatigue & recent workload +1.2 Jan-Lennard Struff

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 57% for Jan-Lennard Struff. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current #59 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #45 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #60 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #102 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #125 2025-10-27

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #47 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #42 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #81 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #86 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #90 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 41.7
ELO Rating: 1666.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1732.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 231.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.0
Clay: 22.9
Grass: 15.6
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 88.4

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 52.4
ELO Rating: 1768.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1741.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.5
Clay: 16.9
Grass: 31.5
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.2

Recent Matches

Yannick Hanfmann
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yannick Hanfmann
vs
0
Jan-Lennard Struff
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jan-Lennard Struff is a modest favourite, with a 57% win probability to Yannick Hanfmann’s 43%. The forecast points to 25.6 games in this Round of 32 match in Basel.

Match Analysis

Struff’s recent hard-court form is a key advantage: he has won three straight in Brussels, including against Arthur Fils. He also holds the higher ranking, at 47th to Hanfmann’s 59th, and has the stronger overall profile. Hanfmann has won twice in Basel, beating Marcos Giron and Rinky Hijikata, and he is the stronger returner. That gives him a way to challenge Struff, but Hanfmann has spent 231 minutes on court this week while Struff has yet to play in Basel.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.6 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Yannick Hanfmann - Jan-Lennard Struff) -0.3 Most likely spread: -1 (Jan-Lennard Struff wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Hanfmann is projected for 9.4 aces and 1.9 double faults, while Struff is forecast at 10.3 aces and 2.7 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, but Struff’s slight ace advantage comes with a higher expected double-fault count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.1 Most likely: 17 aces Per player: Yannick Hanfmann 9.4 + Jan-Lennard Struff 10.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Yannick Hanfmann 1.9 + Jan-Lennard Struff 2.7

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Yannick Hanfmann

Expected 9.4 aces

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 10.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Yannick Hanfmann

Expected 1.9 double faults

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 2.7 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

54.1% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Yannick Hanfmann's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (32.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hanfmann’s return game gives him the best chance to change the forecast. If he can put enough pressure on Struff’s serve, the favourite’s small edge could disappear.

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