Brussels Brussels Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Zizou Bergs Prediction

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #58
37%
VS

Zizou Bergs

Rank: #41
63%
Expected Total Games: 25.7
Predicted Winner: Zizou Bergs

Why the Model Favors Zizou Bergs

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +3.5 Zizou Bergs
Age +3.2 Zizou Bergs
Overall strength +2.2 Zizou Bergs
Serve & return game +2.0 Zizou Bergs
Overall record & opposition quality +0.7 Zizou Bergs

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Zizou Bergs. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #58 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #41 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #81 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #86 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #91 2025-10-20

Zizou Bergs

  • Current #41 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #34 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #44 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #43 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #40 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 51.7
ELO Rating: 1711.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1709.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 166.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.6
Clay: 16.9
Grass: 31.5
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 87.0

Zizou Bergs

Form Index: 58.7
ELO Rating: 1822.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1741.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 164.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.7
Clay: 10.7
Grass: 20.9
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Zizou Bergs
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) hard Brussels 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Toby Samuel (2-0) hard Brussels 87 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) hard Shanghai 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Carlos Alcaraz (2-0) hard Shanghai 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ignacio Buse (2-0) hard Shanghai 65 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jan-Lennard Struff
vs
1
Zizou Bergs
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Zizou Bergs is favored in this Brussels Quarterfinals, with a 63% chance of winning against Jan-Lennard Struff’s 37%. The expected total is 25.7 games, pointing to a potentially close contest.

Match Analysis

Both arrive after two straight-set wins in Brussels: Bergs beat Damir Dzumhur and Toby Samuel, while Struff defeated Gauthier Onclin and Marcos Giron. Their recent results are closely matched, rather than showing a clear form gap. Bergs has the higher ranking, at No. 41 to Struff’s No. 58, and the stronger hard-court profile. His broader strength and recent results against the level of opposition have helped separate them in the forecast. Struff, though, has marginally stronger serve and return numbers, so Bergs does not hold an obvious advantage in those areas.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.7 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jan-Lennard Struff - Zizou Bergs) -1.7 Most likely spread: -2 (Zizou Bergs wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Struff is projected to hit 7.9 aces and 3.1 double faults, while Bergs is forecast for 8.7 aces and 3.6 double faults. Their serve levels are close, and the hard court’s consistent bounce supports similar ace output, with Bergs slightly ahead in the estimate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.8 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Jan-Lennard Struff 7.9 + Zizou Bergs 8.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Jan-Lennard Struff 3.1 + Zizou Bergs 3.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 7.9 aces

Zizou Bergs

Expected 8.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 3.1 double faults

Zizou Bergs

Expected 3.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jan-Lennard Struff's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (38.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Struff’s slightly stronger serve is the clearest counter to Bergs’ broader edge. If he can make that advantage count across his service games, he has a specific way to challenge the forecast.

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