Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Semifinals

Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #1
80%
VS

Arthur Fils

Rank: #25
20%
Expected Total Games: 26.9
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

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Ranking Trends

Jannik Sinner

  • Current #1 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #2 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #2 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #1 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-04-21

Arthur Fils

  • Current #25 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #42 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #30 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #21 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 70.2
ELO Rating: 2530.8
Glicko2 Rating: 2629.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 419.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 77.9
Clay: 93.7
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 90.7

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 75.0
ELO Rating: 1966.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1993.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 424.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 41.0
Clay: 43.3
Grass: 14.6
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Jannik Sinner
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Arthur Fils
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jannik Sinner
vs
0
Arthur Fils
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Madrid Masters 1000 semifinals in Spain, Jannik Sinner meets Arthur Fils on clay with a place in the final at stake. The model strongly favors Sinner to win (79.99%) over Fils (20.01%), with a predicted total of about 26.93 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Sinner arrives as the world No. 1 with an Elo of 2530.83 and a surface strength index of 93.75, signalling elite comfort on clay. His form index (70.21) and standout mean return index (90.65) complement a very high mean serve index (95.19). Fils, ranked 25, posts a higher recent form index (75.04) and comparable mean serve index (95.34), but his Elo (1966.71) and clay surface strength (43.28) lag far behind Sinner. Both players have accumulated similar tournament fatigue (419 minutes for Sinner, 424 for Fils), so conditioning should be an even factor on paper. The recent-match lines show two very consistent runs: Sinner has won his last three matches in Madrid in straight sets (match durations: 116, 86, 77 minutes), while Fils has also won three straight in straight sets (74, 90, 90 minutes). That consistency underpins their semifinal appearances, but the contrast in clay pedigree and Elo is stark — Sinner’s metrics point to greater capacity to control long rallies and dictate patterns on the slower surface.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.9 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jannik Sinner - Arthur Fils) +1.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Jannik Sinner wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay semifinal is modest: the match’s predicted aces total is 15.34, reflecting clay’s tendency to reduce outright winners off the serve. The predicted double faults total is 6.42; an expected double faults outcome that can rise if rallies extend and fatigue accumulates late. Neither player shows a dramatically superior serve rating, so predicted aces may come from short opportunities rather than a single dominant server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

28.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jannik Sinner's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (52.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Sinner’s combination of top ranking, much higher Elo and a dominant clay surface index gives him the clear edge. Watch how Sinner uses his returning strength to pressure Fils’ service games — that tactical battle on returns is the key factor that should decide the match.

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