Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Semifinals

Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul Prediction

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #1
76%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #12
24%
Predicted Games Played: 21.0
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

Ranking Trends

Jannik Sinner

  • Current Rank: #1 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #1 (2025-02-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #1 (2024-11-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1 (2024-08-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #2 (2024-05-06)

Tommy Paul

  • Current Rank: #12 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #9 (2025-02-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #13 (2024-11-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #12 (2024-08-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #16 (2024-05-06)

Player Metrics

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 71.8
ELO Rating: 11830.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2154.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 392.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 88.8

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 61.5
ELO Rating: 2711.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1787.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 455.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.7
Clay: 25.4
Grass: 27.6
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Jannik Sinner
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (1-0) clay Rome 64 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-0) clay Rome 137 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) clay Rome 93 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (2-0) clay Rome 98 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Tommy Paul
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-0) clay Rome 118 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) clay Rome 114 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-1) clay Rome 143 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) clay Rome 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jack Draper (0-2) clay Madrid 68 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Jannik Sinner
vs
0
Tommy Paul
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the semifinals of the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, Jannik Sinner faces Tommy Paul on the clay surface. With Sinner ranked 1st and Paul ranked 12th, the match is expected to favor Sinner, who has a 76.04% probability of winning compared to Paul's 23.96%. The predicted total number of games played is 21.0.

Match Analysis

Jannik Sinner's current ranking at 1, along with a form index of 71.82, showcases his strong performance leading into this match. His Elo rating of 11830 indicates his dominance, particularly on clay where he holds a perfect surface strength index of 100. Sinner's fatigue level is at 392 minutes, relatively low compared to his potential endurance. In contrast, Tommy Paul, ranked 12th with a form index of 61.46, has an Elo rating of 2711.38 and a fatigue level of 455 minutes. Paul's surface strength index of 25.42 suggests he struggles more on clay compared to Sinner. Notably, Sinner’s mean serve index of 98.19 surpasses Paul's 95.63 by over 5 points, giving him a significant advantage in serving potential. Reviewing their recent performances, Sinner has been in excellent form, winning all his last three matches without dropping a set. His victories include convincing wins over Casper Ruud and Francisco Cerundolo. Conversely, Tommy Paul also won his last three matches, but faced slightly more challenges, including a three-set victory against Tomas Machac. This discrepancy in match efficiency may play a crucial role in their upcoming encounter.

Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner's superior rank, form, and serve strength provide him with a clear edge heading into the semifinals. His unblemished run through the tournament and ability to maintain lower fatigue levels will be critical factors to monitor as the match unfolds. The effectiveness of Sinner's serve could very well dictate the flow of the match, making it a decisive element in his potential victory.