Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Jaume Munar vs Alexander Shevchenko: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jaume Munar

Rank: #38
55%
VS

Alexander Shevchenko

Rank: #82
45%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Jaume Munar

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Ranking Trends

Jaume Munar

  • Current #38 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #39 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #42 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #50 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #53 2025-04-21

Alexander Shevchenko

  • Current #82 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #97 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #99 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #110 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #92 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Jaume Munar

Form Index: 45.5
ELO Rating: 1663.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1710.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 58.9
Clay: 40.6
Grass: 43.6
Serve Rating: 69.3
Return Rating: 66.6

Alexander Shevchenko

Form Index: 51.4
ELO Rating: 1631.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1662.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.3
Clay: 40.5
Grass: 39.1
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 91.4

Recent Matches

Jaume Munar
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Alexander Shevchenko
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Diego Dedura (0-2) clay Munich 91 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marin Cilic (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 87 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 132 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrea Pellegrino (1-0) clay Monte Carlo 23 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) clay Bucharest 85 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jaume Munar
vs
0
Alexander Shevchenko
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid, clay, Round of 128 at a Masters 1000 event sets up a lefty-versus-righty duel between home favorite Jaume Munar and Alexander Shevchenko. The model gives Munar the edge — predicted winner Jaume Munar (54.84%) over Shevchenko (45.16%) — with an expected total of about 23.4 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Munar arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 38) with an Elo of 1663.8 and a form index of 45.48; his surface strength sits at 40.56 and he shows solid balance between serving and returning (mean serve 69.28, mean return 66.60). Shevchenko, ranked 82 with a slightly higher form index (51.44) but a lower Elo (1631.55), posts almost identical clay surface strength (40.54). Both report zero minutes of in-tournament fatigue ahead of this match. The serving and returning profiles pivot the matchup. Shevchenko’s mean serve index (97.59) far outstrips Munar’s by over 28 points, and his mean return index (91.36) likewise eclipses Munar’s by roughly 25 points — differences that are large enough to shape tactics and the likely flow of games. Recent form shows both players arriving with mixed results: Munar beat Karen Khachanov two matches ago but then lost to Alexander Bublik and Rafael Jodar; Shevchenko beat Roberto Bautista Agut earlier in clay season action but dropped subsequent matches to Marin Cilic and Diego Dedura. Those results suggest streakiness rather than consistent momentum for either man.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jaume Munar - Alexander Shevchenko) +4.6 Most likely spread: +5 (Jaume Munar wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Predicted aces for the match sit at 8.65 and the expected double faults at 4.54. On clay, the slower surface and higher bounce typically reduce ace counts, so the aces prediction already reflects that natutral suppression of outright service winners. Because Shevchenko has a significantly higher serve rating, he is the likeliest contributor to the predicted aces, while overall expected double faults remain modest; this expected double faults figure should be watched if rallies extend and errors creep in.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.7 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Munar’s higher ranking and slightly superior Elo edge him narrowly in probability, but the matchup will hinge on whether he can blunt Shevchenko’s powerful serve and elite return numbers. The key factor to watch is return games: whoever breaks first under these clay conditions will likely dictate the short, tightly contested match the numbers predict.

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