Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Jaume Munar vs Kyrian Jacquet Prediction

Jaume Munar

Rank: #64
62%
VS

Kyrian Jacquet

Rank: #86
38%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Jaume Munar

Why the Model Favors Jaume Munar

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +8.9 Jaume Munar
Overall strength +3.6 Jaume Munar
Serve & return game +2.5 Jaume Munar
Surface fit +1.9 Jaume Munar
Age +1.4 Kyrian Jacquet

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 62% for Jaume Munar. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jaume Munar

  • Current #64 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #44 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #37 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #33 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #41 2025-09-29

Kyrian Jacquet

  • Current #86 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #139 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #149 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #137 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #182 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Jaume Munar

Form Index: 53.8
ELO Rating: 1731.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1735.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 462.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.0
Clay: 15.9
Grass: 20.2
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 90.2

Kyrian Jacquet

Form Index: 63.8
ELO Rating: 1690.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1724.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 144.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.9
Clay: 18.3
Grass: 20.3
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Jaume Munar
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Kyrian Jacquet
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jaume Munar
vs
0
Kyrian Jacquet
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jaume Munar is favored in this Tokyo quarterfinal, at 62% to Kyrian Jacquet’s 38%, with the match projected to last 24.1 games. The forecast gives Munar a modest rather than commanding advantage.

Match Analysis

Munar’s stronger return and better hard-court fit help explain the lean, alongside his higher ranking, 64 to Jacquet’s 86. He has won all three matches in Tokyo, including a three-set victory over Taylor Fritz and straight-set wins over Jaime Faria and Aleksandar Kovacevic. Jacquet has also made an impression, beating Holger Rune and Luciano Darderi in straight sets. Munar’s win over Fritz stands out in his recent run, while Jacquet’s serve is close enough to Munar’s that he could limit the impact of the Spaniard’s return advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jaume Munar - Kyrian Jacquet) +0.4 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Munar is projected for 5.3 aces and 2.5 double faults, while Jacquet is forecast for 6.4 aces and 3.2 double faults. Jacquet’s slightly higher ace estimate comes despite the pair having similar serve profiles, and the hard court’s consistent bounce should give Munar chances to bring his stronger return into play.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.6 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Jaume Munar 5.3 + Kyrian Jacquet 6.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Jaume Munar 2.5 + Kyrian Jacquet 3.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jaume Munar

Expected 5.3 aces

Kyrian Jacquet

Expected 6.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jaume Munar

Expected 2.5 double faults

Kyrian Jacquet

Expected 3.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jaume Munar's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (41.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jacquet’s much lighter workload, 144 minutes against Munar’s 462, could help him turn his recent wins into an upset if he sustains pressure on Munar’s serve.

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