Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Nishesh Basavareddy vs Jaume Munar: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nishesh Basavareddy

Rank: #154
36%
VS

Jaume Munar

Rank: #38
64%
Expected Total Games: 25.5
Predicted Winner: Jaume Munar

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Ranking Trends

Nishesh Basavareddy

  • Current #154 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #192 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #155 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #106 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #101 2025-05-19

Jaume Munar

  • Current #38 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #37 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #36 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #46 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #58 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Nishesh Basavareddy

Form Index: 49.9
ELO Rating: 1608.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1669.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 195.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.0
Clay: 8.5
Grass: 5.6
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 90.4

Jaume Munar

Form Index: 35.0
ELO Rating: 1634.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1680.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.3
Clay: 17.0
Grass: 19.7
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 86.5

Recent Matches

Nishesh Basavareddy
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Kilian Feldbausch (2-0) clay Geneva 86 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Elahi Galan (2-0) clay Geneva 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (1-2) clay Houston 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (2-1) clay Houston 146 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (0-2) hard Miami 83 min

Jaume Munar
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nishesh Basavareddy
vs
0
Jaume Munar
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Geneva, Switzerland — Round of 32 on clay at an ATP 250-level event sets up a contrast in profiles: Nishesh Basavareddy, the lower-ranked in-form qualifier, faces Spain’s Jaume Munar. The model gives Munar the edge: predicted winner Jaume Munar (63.81%) versus Nishesh Basavareddy (36.19%), with an expected total of about 25.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Munar arrives as the clear higher-ranked player (No. 38) versus Basavareddy at No. 154; his Elo is also slightly higher (1634.65 vs 1608.33). Basavareddy’s form index (49.93) outpoints Munar’s (35.04), reflecting two straight wins in Geneva, but surface strength favors Munar (17.04 vs 8.47). The fatigue column is stark: Basavareddy has logged 195 minutes already in the tournament, whereas Munar shows 0 minutes in this event, a freshness advantage on a physically demanding clay court. Serving profiles are near-identical by the mean serve index (both ~94.8) and there’s no meaningful service-index gap to expect a one-sided serving battle; both players also register strong serve numbers. Basavareddy’s recent results show back-to-back wins in Geneva over Kilian Feldbausch and Daniel Elahi Galan after a three-set loss in Houston. Munar’s last three results are more mixed — a win over Aleksandr Shevchenko bookended by defeats to Casper Ruud and Matteo Arnaldi, including a long 153-minute loss in Rome.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.5 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nishesh Basavareddy - Jaume Munar) -1.9 Most likely spread: -2 (Jaume Munar wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay contest is modest: predicted aces total about 7.73 for the match, reflecting clay’s slower speed and higher bounce which reduce free points. The double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults total of about 5.16; longer rallies and physical wear typically raise double-fault risk, and Basavareddy’s 195 minutes could elevate his late-match error count. Neither player posts a significantly superior serve index, so I don’t expect a major skew in the aces prediction toward one player.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.7 Most likely: 7 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Nishesh Basavareddy's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (39.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Munar’s higher ranking, slightly superior Elo and notably fresher condition on clay give him the narrow edge in the forecast. The key factor to watch is Basavareddy’s accumulated court time — if his legs flag, unforced errors and double faults could decide tight games.

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