Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Jenson Brooksby vs Emilio Nava: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #61
63%
VS

Emilio Nava

Rank: #116
37%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Jenson Brooksby

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Ranking Trends

Jenson Brooksby

  • Current #61 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #48 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #55 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #102 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #163 2025-04-21

Emilio Nava

  • Current #116 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #89 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #92 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #116 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #132 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 41.2
ELO Rating: 1551.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1545.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.7
Clay: 41.4
Grass: 43.1
Serve Rating: 71.9
Return Rating: 75.3

Emilio Nava

Form Index: 46.9
ELO Rating: 1579.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1606.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.4
Clay: 39.9
Grass: 40.3
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Jenson Brooksby
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Emilio Nava
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (1-2) clay Munich 126 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Molcan (0-2) clay Munich 76 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs David Goffin (2-0) clay Munich 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 182 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs David Goffin (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 164 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jenson Brooksby
vs
0
Emilio Nava
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid, Round of 128 on clay at a Masters 1000 event sets up an intriguing stylistic clash between Jenson Brooksby and Emilio Nava. The model gives Brooksby the edge — predicted winner Jenson Brooksby (63.21%) over Emilio Nava (36.79%) — with an expected 23.32 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Brooksby arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 61) with an Elo of 1551.82 and a form index of 41.22; his surface strength sits at 41.38 and cumulative tournament fatigue is zero. Nava is ranked 116 with a slightly higher Elo (1579.44) and a marginally better form index (46.91), surface strength 39.85 and likewise no tournament fatigue. Notably, Nava’s mean serve index (97.75) exceeds Brooksby’s (71.88) by over 25 points, a sizable gap that will shape service dynamics. Nava also posts a superior mean return index (86.82) versus Brooksby’s 75.30, another difference beyond five points. Recent results paint different pictures: Brooksby has struggled, losing his last three matches, including a straight-sets defeat on clay in Houston to Mackenzie McDonald. Nava’s recent clay swing in Munich produced a win over David Goffin but two subsequent losses, one a marathon 126-minute encounter with Ben Shelton. Both players enter Madrid with no accumulated match fatigue from this event, so stamina from earlier weeks won’t be a direct factor.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jenson Brooksby - Emilio Nava) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Emilio Nava wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is moderate — the model’s predicted aces total is 11.21 — while the double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults total of 4.83. Clay typically suppresses serve speeds and reduces ace counts because of the higher bounce and slower ball; that context tempers what might otherwise be a high ace tally given Nava’s very strong serve rating. Nava’s superior serve index is likely the driver behind the bulk of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.2 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Brooksby’s edge in the projection seems to come from the model’s integration of ranking, matchup factors and underlying probabilities despite Nava’s powerful serve metrics and slightly higher Elo. A decisive factor to watch will be how effectively Brooksby can neutralize Nava’s serve returns early — breaking serve will be the clearest route to an upset.

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