Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Jenson Brooksby vs Taylor Fritz Prediction

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #86
33%
VS

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #5
67%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Taylor Fritz

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Ranking Trends

Jenson Brooksby

  • Current #86 2025-09-22
  • 3 mo ago #149 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #937 2025-03-03
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Taylor Fritz

  • Current #5 2025-09-22
  • 3 mo ago #5 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #4 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #4 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #7 2024-09-23

Player Metrics

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 64.1
ELO Rating: 1200.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1621.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 292.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.1
Clay: 4.9
Grass: 4.1
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 88.6

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 78.3
ELO Rating: 3959.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1826.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 380.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.2
Clay: 37.4
Grass: 44.8
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 85.7

Recent Matches

Jenson Brooksby
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Taylor Fritz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Korda (2-1) hard Tokio 138 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (2-0) hard Tokio 113 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-1) hard Tokio 129 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jerome Kym (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jenson Brooksby
vs
2
Taylor Fritz
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

The semifinals of the ATP 500 tournament in Tokyo promise an exciting clash between Jenson Brooksby and Taylor Fritz on hard court. With both players showcasing their skills, the predicted winner is Taylor Fritz, with a probability of 66.76%, while Jenson Brooksby has a 33.24% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played is estimated at 23.0.

Match Analysis

Taylor Fritz, currently ranked 5th, boasts a form index of 78.27 and an impressive Elo rating of 3959.37. His surface strength index stands at 31.16, reflecting his proficiency on hard courts. On the other hand, Jenson Brooksby is ranked 86th, with a form index of 64.08 and an Elo rating of 1200.15. Fritz's mean serve index of 96.79 is notably higher than Brooksby's 95.67, but their mean return indices are relatively close, with Brooksby at 88.62 and Fritz at 85.68. This indicates that while Fritz has a slight advantage in serving, Brooksby is more effective in returning serves. In their recent performances, Brooksby has demonstrated strong form by winning all of his last three matches in straight sets, defeating opponents including Holger Rune, Luciano Darderi, and Ugo Humbert. Conversely, Fritz has also been successful, winning his last three matches, but with more competition, as seen in his match against Sebastian Korda, where he lost a set. This slight struggle could indicate that Fritz might face more challenges against Brooksby, who has been in dominant form.

Final Prediction

Taylor Fritz's higher ranking, superior form index, and stronger serve give him a clear edge in this matchup. However, Brooksby's recent unbeaten run could provide him with the momentum needed to challenge Fritz effectively. A key factor to watch will be how Fritz handles Brooksby’s returning capabilities, which could influence the match's outcome significantly.

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