Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Jerome Kym vs Arthur Rinderknech Prediction

Jerome Kym

Rank: #222
31%
VS

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #61
69%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Arthur Rinderknech

Why the Model Favors Arthur Rinderknech

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +4.9 Arthur Rinderknech
Surface fit +4.2 Arthur Rinderknech
Recent record by level +3.6 Arthur Rinderknech
Serve & return game +3.5 Arthur Rinderknech
Recent form +2.6 Arthur Rinderknech

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 69% for Arthur Rinderknech. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jerome Kym

  • Current #222 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #194 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #173 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #187 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #175 2025-10-27

Arthur Rinderknech

  • Current #61 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #28 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #26 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #28 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #29 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Jerome Kym

Form Index: 37.1
ELO Rating: 1521.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1538.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.1
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 8.5
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 87.4

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 37.2
ELO Rating: 1692.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1695.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.9
Clay: 19.3
Grass: 24.7
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 83.8

Recent Matches

Jerome Kym
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Colton Smith (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Dan Added (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (1-2) clay Gstaad 149 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Dylan Dietrich (2-1) clay Gstaad 150 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Roman Safiullin (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Arthur Rinderknech
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jerome Kym
vs
0
Arthur Rinderknech
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Arthur Rinderknech is favoured at 69% to Jerome Kym’s 31%, with a projection of 22.4 total games. The Basel Round of 32 match gives Rinderknech the edge, though Kym’s return offers a possible route to a closer contest.

Match Analysis

Rinderknech’s stronger overall level and hard-court profile are central to the forecast. Ranked 61st compared with Kym at 222nd, he also comes in with two US Open wins, over Jaume Munar and Sho Shimabukuro, before his loss to Daniil Medvedev. Kym’s recent hard-court record includes a win over Dan Added and a loss to Colton Smith. Rinderknech has a slight serving advantage, but Kym is the stronger returner, which could help him apply pressure in rallies. The broader balance still favours Rinderknech, especially on this surface, where his results and overall level give him more support than Kym’s recent form does.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jerome Kym - Arthur Rinderknech) -2.5 Most likely spread: -3 (Arthur Rinderknech wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Kym is projected for 8.0 aces and 3.5 double faults, while Rinderknech is projected for 8.9 aces and 3.0 double faults. Both have strong serve profiles, with Rinderknech holding a small projected advantage in aces and fewer double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.1 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Jerome Kym 8.0 + Arthur Rinderknech 8.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Jerome Kym 3.5 + Arthur Rinderknech 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jerome Kym

Expected 8.0 aces

Arthur Rinderknech

Expected 8.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jerome Kym

Expected 3.5 double faults

Arthur Rinderknech

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

48.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jerome Kym's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (41.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kym’s return is the most plausible way to shift the match: if he can make Rinderknech work through service games, the favourite’s serving edge may count for less. Otherwise, Rinderknech’s stronger hard-court profile points to him advancing.

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