Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Ben Shelton vs Jerome Kym Prediction

Ben Shelton

Rank: #4
74%
VS

Jerome Kym

Rank: #222
26%
Expected Total Games: 26.9
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Why the Model Favors Ben Shelton

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +9.3 Ben Shelton
Recent form +6.3 Ben Shelton
Surface fit +4.2 Ben Shelton
Overall record & opposition quality +2.9 Ben Shelton
Recent record by level +2.5 Ben Shelton

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 74% for Ben Shelton. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current #4 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #6 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #7 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #7 2025-10-27

Jerome Kym

  • Current #222 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #194 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #173 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #187 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #175 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 61.3
ELO Rating: 2031.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1931.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 158.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.1
Clay: 27.7
Grass: 37.0
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 87.7

Jerome Kym

Form Index: 52.0
ELO Rating: 1549.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1594.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 101.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.2
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 8.5
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Jerome Kym
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) hard Basel 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Colton Smith (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Dan Added (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (1-2) clay Gstaad 149 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Dylan Dietrich (2-1) clay Gstaad 150 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Jerome Kym
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Ben Shelton is favoured, with a 74% win probability against Jerome Kym’s 26%, and the forecast is for 26.9 total games. The Round of 16 matchup in Basel gives Shelton the advantage, though Kym’s straight-sets win over Arthur Rinderknech makes him a credible threat.

Match Analysis

The biggest separation is in overall strength: Shelton is ranked fourth, while Kym is 222nd, and Shelton has been the stronger player across recent results and on hard courts. His win over Aleksandar Kovacevic in Basel followed a loss in Shanghai, but his level and court fit still give him the clearer path. Kym has momentum from his win over Rinderknech, but Shelton’s stronger return could put more pressure on the Swiss player’s service games. Shelton also spent 158 minutes on court in his last match, compared with Kym’s 101, a difference that could matter if this becomes a long contest.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.9 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ben Shelton - Jerome Kym) +3.4 Most likely spread: +3 (Ben Shelton wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Shelton is projected to hit 10.7 aces and Kym 10.3, with 2.6 double faults for Shelton and 3.2 for Kym. Both have strong serving profiles, and Kym’s expected ace count is close to Shelton’s, even though Shelton has the stronger overall game.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.9 Most likely: 18 aces Per player: Ben Shelton 10.7 + Jerome Kym 10.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Ben Shelton 2.6 + Jerome Kym 3.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Ben Shelton

Expected 10.7 aces

Jerome Kym

Expected 10.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Ben Shelton

Expected 2.6 double faults

Jerome Kym

Expected 3.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

62.1% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ben Shelton's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (44.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kym’s serve is the clearest way to challenge the forecast: if it keeps Shelton from making regular inroads on return, the match could stay close enough for Kym to seize key points.

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