Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Jerome Kym vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction

Jerome Kym

Rank: #222
17%
VS

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #21
83%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Why the Model Favors Jiri Lehecka

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +10.8 Jiri Lehecka
Overall strength +6.8 Jiri Lehecka
Surface fit +6.2 Jiri Lehecka
Recent form +3.9 Jiri Lehecka
Overall record & opposition quality +3.4 Jiri Lehecka

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 83% for Jiri Lehecka. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jerome Kym

  • Current #222 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #194 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #173 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #187 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #175 2025-10-27

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current #21 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #12 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #19 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Jerome Kym

Form Index: 57.4
ELO Rating: 1615.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1661.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 242.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.3
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 8.5
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 87.5

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 49.3
ELO Rating: 1845.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1859.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 214.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.1
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 29.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Jerome Kym
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-1) hard Basel 141 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) hard Basel 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Colton Smith (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Dan Added (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (1-2) clay Gstaad 149 min

Jiri Lehecka
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jerome Kym
vs
0
Jiri Lehecka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Lehecka is a strong favourite, with an 83% win probability to Kym’s 17%. The match is projected to last 22.9 games.

Match Analysis

Kym’s wins over Ben Shelton and Arthur Rinderknech show he can make a deep run in Basel. Lehecka has also been sharp here, beating Stan Wawrinka and Daniel Altmaier without dropping a set. The ranking gap is substantial, with Lehecka 21st and Kym 222nd, and Lehecka has the stronger hard-court profile. Kym’s return is a relative strength, but Lehecka’s broader level and recent results against this calibre of opposition support the favourite’s position.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jerome Kym - Jiri Lehecka) -4.4 Most likely spread: -5 (Jiri Lehecka wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Kym is projected to hit 8.6 aces and 2.9 double faults, while Lehecka is forecast for 7.9 aces and 1.9 double faults. Both have strong serve profiles on hard courts, with Kym’s higher ace estimate accompanied by the greater double-fault expectation.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.7 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Jerome Kym 8.6 + Jiri Lehecka 7.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Jerome Kym 2.9 + Jiri Lehecka 1.9

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jerome Kym

Expected 8.6 aces

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 7.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jerome Kym

Expected 2.9 double faults

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 1.9 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

51.2% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jerome Kym's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (50.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kym’s slightly stronger return profile is his clearest chance to disrupt the forecast. If he can pressure Lehecka’s service games while limiting his own double faults, the gap between them could narrow.

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