Bastad Sweden Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Jesper de Jong vs Sebastian Baez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #73
55%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #56
45%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Jesper de Jong

Why the Model Favors Jesper de Jong

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +7.0 Jesper de Jong
Recent record by level +3.7 Jesper de Jong
Serve & return game +3.1 Sebastian Baez
Fatigue & recent workload +0.9 Jesper de Jong
Overall record & opposition quality +0.7 Sebastian Baez

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 55% for Jesper de Jong. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jesper de Jong

  • Current #73 2026-07-13
  • 3 mo ago #108 2026-04-13
  • 6 mo ago #73 2026-01-12
  • 9 mo ago #82 2025-10-13
  • 12 mo ago #106 2025-07-14

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #56 2026-07-13
  • 3 mo ago #57 2026-04-13
  • 6 mo ago #39 2026-01-12
  • 9 mo ago #44 2025-10-13
  • 12 mo ago #37 2025-07-14

Player Metrics

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 55.7
ELO Rating: 1693.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1607.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 134.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.8
Clay: 25.9
Grass: 9.0
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 92.9

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 19.0
ELO Rating: 1547.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1693.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 111.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.7
Clay: 14.0
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 89.0

Recent Matches

Jesper de Jong
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Sebastian Baez
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jesper de Jong
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Bastad in Sweden, Round of 16 on clay at an ATP 250-level event, the model gives Jesper de Jong the slight edge over Sebastian Baez. De Jong is predicted to win with a 55.09% probability to Baez’s 44.91%, and the match is expected to contain about 23.82 games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for de Jong comes mainly from recent form (+7.0 percentage points) and recent record by level (+3.7). De Jong’s form index (55.66) far outstrips Baez’s (19.05), and his Elo (1693) is notably higher than Baez’s (1548), suggesting De Jong has been playing at a sharper level coming into Bastad. Surface strength further favors de Jong (25.94 vs 14.03), indicating he adapts better to clay conditions. Baez does pick up weight from serve & return dynamics (+3.1 toward Baez), reflecting his all-around court craft despite weaker form. Mean serve indexes are close (de Jong 95.83, Baez 94.88) and mean return indexes are similar enough (92.87 vs 89.00) that neither player holds a distinct serving/returning supremacy on paper. Fatigue slightly favors de Jong (+0.9), though he has accrued more minutes at this event (134 vs 111), and overall record/opposition quality nudges marginally toward Baez (+0.7). Over their last three matches de Jong has two wins (including his Bastad opener) and a deep grass-court loss, while Baez has one recent win here but two losses in his prior three, including a clay defeat at Roland Garros.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jesper de Jong - Sebastian Baez) +0.5 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction leans low: the match’s predicted aces are 6.73, and the expected double faults are 4.88. Clay typically suppresses serve speeds and reduces ace opportunities, which aligns with this modest predicted aces total. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so the predicted aces count is driven more by surface than by a single dominant server; expect the expected double faults to rise if fatigue accumulates.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jesper de Jong's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (35.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

De Jong’s recent form is the key reason he is favored here. Watch whether fatigue and baseline consistency on clay will keep rallies long and pressure Baez’s serve — that battle of consistency versus shot-making will likely decide the match.

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