Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Jiri Lehecka vs Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #21
69%
VS

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #47
31%
Expected Total Games: 25.9
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Why the Model Favors Jiri Lehecka

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +7.3 Jiri Lehecka
Recent record by level +7.1 Jiri Lehecka
Age +5.3 Jiri Lehecka
Surface fit +2.8 Jiri Lehecka
Overall strength +2.2 Jiri Lehecka

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 69% for Jiri Lehecka. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current #21 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #12 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #19 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-10-27

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #47 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #42 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #81 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #86 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #90 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 52.0
ELO Rating: 1855.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1862.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 298.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.2
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 29.0
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 88.0

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 69.0
ELO Rating: 1833.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1782.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 282.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.4
Clay: 16.9
Grass: 31.5
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Jiri Lehecka
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Jiri Lehecka
vs
0
Jan-Lennard Struff
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jiri Lehecka is favoured in the Basel semifinals, with the forecast at 69% for him and 31% for Jan-Lennard Struff. The expected total is 25.9 games, pointing to a competitive match.

Match Analysis

The biggest separation is in the serve-and-return matchup: Lehecka is stronger in both areas, giving him more ways to protect his own service games and pressure Struff’s. He also has the better hard-court profile and is ranked 21st, compared with Struff at 47th. Both arrive on a three-match winning run in Basel, but their routes have differed. Lehecka has won all three matches in straight sets, while Struff’s run includes a three-set win over Novak Djokovic and a straight-sets victory over Nuno Borges. That win over Djokovic shows the danger Struff can pose, even as Lehecka’s cleaner run supports the forecast.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.9 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jiri Lehecka - Jan-Lennard Struff) +2.7 Most likely spread: +3 (Jiri Lehecka wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Lehecka is projected for 11.2 aces and 2.1 double faults, against 9.4 aces and 3.1 double faults for Struff. Both have strong serve profiles, but Lehecka’s is the more effective, while Struff’s higher double-fault estimate adds risk.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.6 Most likely: 18 aces Per player: Jiri Lehecka 11.2 + Jan-Lennard Struff 9.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Jiri Lehecka 2.1 + Jan-Lennard Struff 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 11.2 aces

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 9.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 2.1 double faults

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

51.4% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jiri Lehecka's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (39.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Struff’s serve is the clearest way to disrupt the prediction. If it brings enough free points to limit Lehecka’s return pressure, his win over Djokovic suggests he has the level to make this a close semifinal.

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