Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Jiri Lehecka vs Jenson Brooksby: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #21
63%
VS

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #45
37%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Player Metrics

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 23.9
ELO Rating: 1858.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1686.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.3
Clay: 15.8
Grass: 18.2
Serve Rating: 81.2
Return Rating: 41.9

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 14.7
ELO Rating: 1005.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1458.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 10.3
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 92.5

Recent Matches

Jiri Lehecka

  • Last Match: vs Arthur Gea (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Sebastian Korda (1-1) hard Brisbane 46 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (2-1) hard Brisbane 144 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Basel 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-2) hard Brussels 154 min

Jenson Brooksby

  • Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (1-2) hard Dallas 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) hard Auckland 87 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs James Watt (2-0) hard Auckland 86 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-2) hard Paris 122 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jiri Lehecka
vs
0
Jenson Brooksby
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Doha (Qatar) at a hard-court ATP 500 event pits Jiri Lehecka against Jenson Brooksby. The model favours Jiri Lehecka to win with a 63.43% probability versus 36.57% for Brooksby, and the predicted total number of games in the match is 23.59.

Match Analysis

Lehecka enters the match ranked 21 with an Elo of 1858.52, a form index of 23.86 and a surface strength index of 11.26. He has no accumulated fatigue from the current event. Brooksby is ranked 45 with a considerably lower Elo of 1005.62 and a form index of 14.69, also showing zero tournament fatigue and a surface strength index of 9.90. There is a notable difference in serve and return profiles: Brooksby’s mean serve index (97.34) exceeds Lehecka’s (81.16) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (92.52) is markedly higher than Lehecka’s (41.89), both differences likely to affect patterns of play. Over the last three matches Lehecka is 1–2, with a win against Tomas Machac and recent losses including a straight-sets defeat at the Australian Open and a split match in Brisbane. Brooksby’s last three results show three losses, including defeats to Tommy Paul and Alexander Bublik and an earlier loss in Auckland. Those results, combined with Elo, rank and form indices, underpin the projection favouring Lehecka despite Brooksby’s superior serve/return ratings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 6.72 total, and the double faults prediction is 4.11 total. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate — the surface supports both servers and returners without producing the extreme ace counts seen on grass. Given Brooksby’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute more to the predicted aces total, while both players are expected to produce a few double faults consistent with hard-court averages.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Lehecka’s higher ranking, Elo and stronger recent form give him the edge in the model despite Brooksby’s superior serve and return indices. A key factor to watch will be how often Brooksby can turn his serving and returning metrics into free points; that will determine whether the match stays as a shorter contest or becomes extended.

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