Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Martin Landaluce vs Jiri Lehecka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Martin Landaluce

Rank: #151
34%
VS

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #22
66%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

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Player Metrics

Martin Landaluce

Form Index: 98.4
ELO Rating: 1744.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1810.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 714.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.5
Clay: 34.7
Grass: 38.9
Serve Rating: 54.0
Return Rating: 53.1

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 61.3
ELO Rating: 1739.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1771.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 333.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 74.7
Clay: 64.8
Grass: 66.5
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Martin Landaluce

  • Last Match: vs Sebastian Korda (2-1) hard Miami 147 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Karen Khachanov (2-0) hard Miami 93 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (2-1) hard Miami 143 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (2-0) hard Miami 98 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (2-1) hard Miami 153 min

Jiri Lehecka

  • Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (2-1) hard Miami 145 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Miami 93 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Moise Kouame (2-0) hard Miami 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) hard Indian Wells 71 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Dubai 112 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Martin Landaluce
vs
0
Jiri Lehecka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinal action in Miami, Florida on hard court sees Martin Landaluce face Jiri Lehecka in a Masters 1000 setting. The model backs Jiri Lehecka to advance (65.96% chance) over Martin Landaluce (34.04%), with a projected total of about 23.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper the matchup is a study in contrasts: Landaluce is ranked 151 with an Elo of 1744.76 and an eye-catching form index of 98.44, while Lehecka sits at rank 22 with a slightly lower Elo of 1738.96 and a form index of 61.35. Fatigue is a clear differential — Landaluce has accumulated 714 minutes this event versus Lehecka’s 333 — which may matter deep into rallies and tight games. Surface strength favors Lehecka (74.66 vs 52.49), indicating he’s more comfortable on hard courts this season. Serve and return profiles heavily favor Lehecka. His mean serve index (98.32) dwarfs Landaluce’s (54.04) by over 44 points, and his mean return index (88.41) exceeds Landaluce’s (53.15) by roughly 35 points — both notable gaps that should influence hold/break dynamics. Both players arrive unbeaten in Miami: Landaluce has wins over Luciano Darderi, Karen Khachanov and Sebastian Korda, with match times of 143, 93 and 147 minutes respectively; Lehecka has beaten Moise Kouame, Ethan Quinn and Taylor Fritz, with matches of 95, 93 and 145 minutes. Those results underline that while Landaluce is red-hot, Lehecka’s combination of serving and returning power on hard courts gives him the statistical edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Martin Landaluce versus Jiri Lehecka. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Martin Landaluce versus Jiri Lehecka. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Martin Landaluce - Jiri Lehecka) -2.6 Most likely spread: -3 (Jiri Lehecka wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Martin Landaluce versus Jiri Lehecka. Positive values indicate Martin Landaluce winning more games, negative values indicate Jiri Lehecka winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Martin Landaluce versus Jiri Lehecka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 12.89 total, with a predicted aces skew toward Lehecka given his far superior serve index. The double faults prediction sits at 5.49 expected double faults for the match. On hard courts, which produce moderate ace counts compared with grass or clay, Lehecka’s big-serve profile should lift the predicted aces while keeping double faults at a manageable level.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Martin Landaluce versus Jiri Lehecka. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Martin Landaluce versus Jiri Lehecka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Martin Landaluce versus Jiri Lehecka. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Martin Landaluce versus Jiri Lehecka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Lehecka’s serving and returning superiority on hard courts, coupled with a lighter court load this week, explains his edge in the projection. Key factor to watch: whether Landaluce’s exceptional recent form can translate into extended return pressure against Lehecka’s dominant serve.

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