Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot Prediction

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #23
59%
VS

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #18
41%
Expected Total Games: 24.3
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Why the Model Favors Jiri Lehecka

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +6.4 Jiri Lehecka
Recent record by level +3.3 Valentin Vacherot
Overall strength +2.1 Jiri Lehecka
Age +1.7 Jiri Lehecka
Surface fit +1.7 Jiri Lehecka

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Jiri Lehecka. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current #23 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #14 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #18 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-09-29

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current #18 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #20 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #23 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #31 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #204 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 55.9
ELO Rating: 1852.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1854.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 400.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.1
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 29.0
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 87.9

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 49.3
ELO Rating: 1796.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1772.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 393.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.7
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 16.6
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Jiri Lehecka
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Valentin Vacherot
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jiri Lehecka
vs
0
Valentin Vacherot
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jiri Lehecka is favoured in the Tokyo semifinal, though Valentin Vacherot has a credible chance: the forecast gives Lehecka 59% and Vacherot 41%. It points to 24.3 total games.

Match Analysis

The main separation is on serve and return. Lehecka has the stronger profile in both areas, and a small advantage on hard courts, giving him a slight edge in the exchanges that decide service games. Vacherot’s recent run is a substantial counterweight: he has beaten Stefanos Tsitsipas and Arthur Fils in succession, winning all three of his matches in Tokyo. Lehecka has also won his three matches, including a straight-sets victory over Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, but Vacherot’s wins over higher-ranked opposition help explain why this is not a one-sided forecast. Vacherot is ranked 18th, five places above Lehecka.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jiri Lehecka - Valentin Vacherot) +0.8 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Lehecka is projected to hit 8.1 aces and Vacherot 7.9, reflecting their closely matched serve strengths. The expected double-fault counts are 2.0 for Lehecka and 2.6 for Vacherot.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Jiri Lehecka 8.1 + Valentin Vacherot 7.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Jiri Lehecka 2.0 + Valentin Vacherot 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 8.1 aces

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 7.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 2.0 double faults

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

49.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jiri Lehecka's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (37.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Vacherot’s run against Tsitsipas and Fils gives him a strong case to upset the forecast. If he sustains that level of play against Lehecka’s stronger serve-and-return combination, the narrow gap could turn his way.

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