Munich Germany Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonseca: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #45
40%
VS

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #35
60%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Joao Fonseca

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Ranking Trends

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current #45 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #81 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #73 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #103 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #31 2025-04-14

Joao Fonseca

  • Current #35 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #30 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #45 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #48 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #59 2025-04-14

Player Metrics

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 59.8
ELO Rating: 1691.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1764.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.8
Clay: 41.5
Grass: 40.7
Serve Rating: 91.0
Return Rating: 66.7

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 66.8
ELO Rating: 1768.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1807.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 60.2
Clay: 43.5
Grass: 43.6
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 90.4

Recent Matches

Alejandro Tabilo
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Joao Fonseca
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alejandro Tabilo
vs
0
Joao Fonseca
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This first-round match in Munich, Germany, on clay (Round of 32 at an ATP 250-level event) pits Alejandro Tabilo against Joao Fonseca. The model projects Joao Fonseca as the favorite (59.59% win probability) to Alejandro Tabilo’s 40.41%, with an expected total of about 23.85 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tabilo arrives ranked 45 with an Elo of 1691.77 and a form index of 59.8. He shows no accumulated fatigue from the event and carries a surface strength index of 41.54. His mean serve index is strong at 90.97 while his mean return index sits at 66.70. Fonseca, ranked 35 with an Elo of 1768.86 and a form index of 66.82, also reports zero tournament fatigue and a slightly higher surface strength index of 43.48. The gap in mean serve index (Fonseca 97.29 vs Tabilo 90.97) exceeds 5 points, and the mean return index gap is even larger (Fonseca 90.39 vs Tabilo 66.70), both meaningful edges for Fonseca. Looking at recent results, Tabilo has one win and two losses in his last three outings: a win over Marton Fucsovics and two three-set losses to Jiri Lehecka and Alex Michelsen (the Lehecka match was a 159-minute clay contest). Fonseca has been the more consistent recent performer with two wins (Berrettini, Rinderknech) and a loss to Alexander Zverev in a long Monte Carlo encounter. Those recent clay matches show Fonseca carrying better form and higher-level results into Munich.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alejandro Tabilo - Joao Fonseca) +1.3 Most likely spread: +1 (Alejandro Tabilo wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 13.67 total and the expected double faults tally is 3.54. On clay, the slower surface and higher bounce tend to suppress ace counts and can increase unforced serving errors late in extended rallies; that aligns with the predicted aces and expected double faults. Given Fonseca’s notably higher serve rating, he is the likelier contributor to the predicted aces, while both players could accumulate the expected double faults over a tight encounter.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.7 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.5 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fonseca’s higher Elo, stronger recent form and clear advantages in serve and return indices give him the edge in Munich. The key factor to watch will be whether Fonseca’s return game can neutralize Tabilo’s serve and convert break chances early on the slow clay.

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