Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 16

Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Casper Ruud

Rank: #17
49%
VS

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #30
51%
Expected Total Games: 37.7
Predicted Winner: Joao Fonseca

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Player Metrics

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 72.3
ELO Rating: 1974.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1898.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.4
Clay: 48.9
Grass: 27.4
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 89.0

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 68.5
ELO Rating: 1863.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1843.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.6
Clay: 33.8
Grass: 19.8
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Casper Ruud

  • Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Roman Safiullin (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (0-2) clay Geneva 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) clay Geneva 72 min

Joao Fonseca

  • Last Match: vs Novak Djokovic (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Dino Prizmic (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Luka Pavlovic (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (1-2) clay Rome 144 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Rafael Jodar (1-2) clay Madrid 127 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Casper Ruud
vs
0
Joao Fonseca
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Round of 16 at Roland Garros in Paris on clay pits Casper Ruud against Joao Fonseca in what projects to be a tight grand slam encounter. The model nudges Fonseca as the slight favorite — Joao Fonseca 50.89% to Casper Ruud 49.11% — with an expected total of about 37.66 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Ruud arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 17) with a strong form index (72.34) and the higher Elo (1974.81). His surface strength index (48.90) indicates he is reasonably comfortable on clay, and his mean serve (95.50) and return (89.01) indexes show a well-rounded baseline and service profile. Fatigue numbers are notable: Ruud has already logged 522 minutes in the tournament, reflecting deep, lengthy matches so far. Fonseca, ranked 30 with a form index of 68.54 and an Elo of 1863.17, has a lower surface strength index (33.81) which suggests clay is less of an advantage for him compared with Ruud. His mean serve (94.66) and return (86.82) are close to Ruud’s, and both players share the same cumulative fatigue (522 minutes), so physical wear will be an even factor. Over their last three matches at Roland Garros each, both players have been unbeaten: Ruud posted three straight wins including a five-setter against Tommy Paul and a straight-sets win over Hamad Medjedovic, while Fonseca’s run includes a headline three-set victory over Novak Djokovic and two other wins, one in straight sets.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.7 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Casper Ruud versus Joao Fonseca. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Casper Ruud versus Joao Fonseca. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Casper Ruud - Joao Fonseca) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Joao Fonseca wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Casper Ruud versus Joao Fonseca. Positive values indicate Casper Ruud winning more games, negative values indicate Joao Fonseca winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Casper Ruud versus Joao Fonseca. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at 14.91 predicted aces overall; clay’s slower bounce typically suppresses ace totals. The double faults prediction is 5.31 expected double faults for the match, with longer rallies and fatigue on clay often increasing error counts. Neither player’s serve index is markedly higher, so neither should dominate the ace count purely by power.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.9 Most likely: 14 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.3 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Casper Ruud versus Joao Fonseca. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Casper Ruud versus Joao Fonseca. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Casper Ruud versus Joao Fonseca. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Casper Ruud versus Joao Fonseca. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

50.9% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Casper Ruud's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (21.2%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Casper Ruud's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Fonseca’s narrow edge comes from marginal model favorability despite Ruud’s higher rank and clay comfort; the match should hinge on a few pivotal service holds and return games. Watch serve consistency and who copes better with cumulative fatigue deep into long rallies.

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