Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Jordan Thompson vs Nuno Borges: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jordan Thompson

Rank: #111
38%
VS

Nuno Borges

Rank: #46
62%
Expected Total Games: 38.9
Predicted Winner: Nuno Borges

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Ranking Trends

Jordan Thompson

  • Current #111 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #79 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #36 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #40 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #27 2025-01-13

Nuno Borges

  • Current #46 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #47 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #40 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #41 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #33 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Jordan Thompson

Form Index: 57.6
ELO Rating: 581.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1671.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.6
Clay: 4.1
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 74.4
Return Rating: 49.9

Nuno Borges

Form Index: 64.5
ELO Rating: 1214.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1642.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.3
Clay: 28.0
Grass: 30.8
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 93.5

Recent Matches

Jordan Thompson
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs August Holmgren (2-1) hard Shanghai 128 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (1-2) hard Tokio 184 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) hard Chengdu 79 min

Nuno Borges
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jordan Thompson
vs
1
Nuno Borges
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match at the Australian Open sees Jordan Thompson face off against Nuno Borges in the Round of 64. Set on hard courts, this Grand Slam event is expected to be competitive, with Borges predicted to emerge victorious with a winning probability of 62.48% compared to Thompson's 37.52%. The match is anticipated to feature approximately 38.89 games.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 111, Jordan Thompson has a form index of 57.59 and an Elo rating of 581.45. He has shown resilience in recent matches, winning against Juan Manuel Cerundolo after a tough 174-minute battle. However, Thompson's fatigue level stands at 174 minutes, which could impact his performance. His mean serve index of 74.44 positions him below Borges in serve effectiveness, who boasts a mean serve index of 97.70, indicating a significant advantage. Furthermore, Thompson's mean return index of 49.89 is markedly lower than Borges’ impressive 93.47, suggesting a potential struggle in returning serves effectively. Nuno Borges, ranked 46, is in better form with a form index of 64.47 and an Elo rating of 1214.50. His recent performances have included a notable victory over Felix Auger-Aliassime, showcasing his capability on hard courts. Despite a setback against Eliot Spizzirri, Borges managed to win against Tomas Martin Etcheverry, indicating a solid competitive edge. The cumulative fatigue level for both players is equal, but Borges’ superior serve and return stats give him the upper hand.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.9 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jordan Thompson - Nuno Borges) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

In terms of aces and double faults, the match is expected to yield around 21.61 aces and 4.86 double faults. Given the hard court surface, which favors both powerful servers and adept returners, these predictions align well with the players' abilities. Borges’ higher mean serve index suggests he may contribute a significant number of the predicted aces, while both players will need to manage their service games carefully to minimize double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.6 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Nuno Borges is favored to win this match due to his superior serve and return metrics, which are critical on hard courts. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Thompson can respond to Borges’ serves, as this will greatly influence the match's outcome.

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