Chengdu China Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Juncheng Shang vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

Juncheng Shang

Rank: #138
41%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #33
59%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

Ranking Trends

Juncheng Shang

  • Current Rank: #138 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #76 (2025-06-16)
  • 6 Months Ago: #58 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #50 (2024-12-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #67 (2024-09-16)

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current Rank: #33 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #32 (2025-06-16)
  • 6 Months Ago: #32 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #38 (2024-12-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #39 (2024-09-16)

Player Metrics

Juncheng Shang

Form Index: 25.8
ELO Rating: 967.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1529.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 130.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 7.7
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 86.3

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 50.2
ELO Rating: 1125.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1604.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.3
Clay: 10.6
Grass: 11.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 84.2

Recent Matches

Juncheng Shang
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-1) hard Chengdu 130 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Mattia Bellucci (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-2) hard Cincinnati 219 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs James Duckworth (0-2) hard Toronto 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Brandon Nakashima
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jerome Kym (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Cincinnati 96 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Blockx (2-1) hard Cincinnati 143 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (1-2) hard Toronto 156 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Juncheng Shang
vs
0
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Chengdu tournament in China, Juncheng Shang is set to face Brandon Nakashima on hard courts. With a predicted winner being Brandon Nakashima, he holds a probability of 58.83% to win, while Juncheng Shang stands at 41.17%. The expected total number of games played in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Brandon Nakashima, currently ranked 33, boasts a form index of 50.15 and an Elo rating of 1125.37, indicating a stronger recent performance compared to Juncheng Shang, who is ranked 138 with a form index of 25.76 and an Elo rating of 967.12. Notably, Nakashima has zero cumulative fatigue from this tournament, whereas Shang has already accumulated 130 minutes on court, which may impact his stamina in this matchup. Additionally, Nakashima's surface strength index of 11.33 surpasses Shang's 9.57, indicating a better adaptation to hard courts. In terms of serving, both players are closely matched, with Nakashima holding a mean serve index of 96.51 compared to Shang's 97.11. However, Shang's mean return index of 86.29 provides him an edge over Nakashima's 84.22, though the difference is not significant enough to sway the overall dynamics heavily. Evaluating their recent performances, Shang secured a victory against Zizou Bergs in his last match but faced defeats in his previous two encounters. Conversely, Nakashima has mixed results, winning against Jesper de Jong but losing against Jerome Kym and Alexander Zverev.

Final Prediction

Brandon Nakashima's superior ranking, form, and lack of cumulative fatigue give him a distinct advantage heading into this match against Juncheng Shang. The key factor to observe will be Shang's ability to manage his fatigue and capitalize on his return game to challenge Nakashima effectively.