Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Jurij Rodionov vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Prediction

Jurij Rodionov

Rank: #137
19%
VS

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Rank: #95
81%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Nikoloz Basilashvili

Why the Model Favors Nikoloz Basilashvili

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +8.8 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Serve & return game +7.7 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Recent form +7.3 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Overall record & opposition quality +3.0 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Surface fit +2.2 Nikoloz Basilashvili

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 81% for Nikoloz Basilashvili. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jurij Rodionov

  • Current #137 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #136 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #162 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #167 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #156 2025-10-27

Nikoloz Basilashvili

  • Current #95 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #133 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #120 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #105 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #95 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Jurij Rodionov

Form Index: 57.0
ELO Rating: 1625.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1589.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.5
Clay: 15.6
Grass: 6.4
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 88.5

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Form Index: 57.3
ELO Rating: 1715.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1733.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.5
Clay: 23.3
Grass: 11.5
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Jurij Rodionov
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Nikoloz Basilashvili
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jurij Rodionov
vs
1
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Basilashvili is favoured to win, with the forecast giving him 81% and Rodionov 19%. The expected total is 23.3 games.

Match Analysis

Basilashvili’s recent results are a major separator: he has won three straight matches in Almaty, including a victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas. Rodionov has lost his last two recorded matches, against Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Jakub Mensik, after beating Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard at the US Open. Basilashvili also has the better ranking and a stronger hard-court profile, with a slight advantage on serve. Rodionov’s return is a counterweight, but his recent results give less reason to expect him to control the match. Both arrive without tournament fatigue, so there is no workload gap to change the outlook.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jurij Rodionov - Nikoloz Basilashvili) -4.0 Most likely spread: -5 (Nikoloz Basilashvili wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Rodionov is projected to hit 6.4 aces and 2.8 double faults, while Basilashvili is projected for 8.1 aces and 3.2 double faults. Basilashvili’s slight serving advantage helps explain the higher ace estimate, while the hard court gives both players a consistent bounce to work with.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.1 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Jurij Rodionov 6.4 + Nikoloz Basilashvili 8.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.0 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Jurij Rodionov 2.8 + Nikoloz Basilashvili 3.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jurij Rodionov

Expected 6.4 aces

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 8.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jurij Rodionov

Expected 2.8 double faults

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 3.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jurij Rodionov's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (50.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rodionov’s comparatively stronger return is the most plausible way to make this closer than forecast. If he can use it to put sustained pressure on Basilashvili’s serve, the favourite’s advantage may narrow.

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