Stuttgart Germany Grass Atp 250 Round of 16

Alex Michelsen vs Justin Engel Prediction

Alex Michelsen

Rank: #35
69%
VS

Justin Engel

Rank: #281
31%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Alex Michelsen

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Ranking Trends

Alex Michelsen

  • Current #35 2025-06-09
  • 3 mo ago #32 2025-03-03
  • 6 mo ago #41 2024-12-09
  • 9 mo ago #47 2024-09-09
  • 12 mo ago #61 2024-06-10

Justin Engel

  • Current #281 2025-06-09
  • 3 mo ago #350 2025-03-03
  • 6 mo ago #395 2024-12-09
  • 9 mo ago #516 2024-09-09
  • 12 mo ago #881 2024-06-10

Player Metrics

Alex Michelsen

Form Index: 26.2
ELO Rating: 1158.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1581.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 105.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.8
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 9.0
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 88.8

Justin Engel

Form Index: 44.1
ELO Rating: 242.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1640.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 149.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.3
Clay: 2.1
Grass: 1.7
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Alex Michelsen
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Justin Engel
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex Michelsen
vs
0
Justin Engel
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Stuttgart tournament, held on grass, Alex Michelsen is set to face Justin Engel. With a predicted win probability of 69.22% for Michelsen and 30.78% for Engel, the match is expected to feature a total of approximately 22 games.

Match Analysis

Alex Michelsen, currently ranked 35, boasts a strong form index of 26.21 and an Elo rating of 1158.86, indicating solid performance levels. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 105 minutes, which is manageable. Michelsen's surface strength index of 9.01 is significantly higher than Engel's 1.70, showcasing his adeptness on grass. Notably, Michelsen's mean serve index of 97.39 exceeds Engel's 97.04 by a narrow margin, while his mean return index of 88.76 also surpasses Engel's 88.17, but by a lesser margin, reflecting an overall advantage in both serving and returning capabilities. On the other side, Justin Engel, ranked 281, carries a form index of 44.08 and a very low Elo rating of 242.38. His fatigue level is higher at 149 minutes, which may affect his performance. Although Engel recently won against James Duckworth in Stuttgart, he previously faced tougher opponents like Andrey Rublev, suffering a loss. His recent performances have shown volatility, with a mix of wins and losses, making it difficult for him to build consistent momentum.

Final Prediction

The edge lies with Alex Michelsen due to his superior ranking, better form index, and stronger performance on grass. A crucial factor to observe during the match will be Michelsen's ability to maintain his serve effectiveness, as it could be pivotal in dictating the pace and outcome of the encounter.

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