Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Kamil Majchrzak vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #56
37%
VS

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Rank: #58
63%
Expected Total Games: 25.0
Predicted Winner: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

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Ranking Trends

Kamil Majchrzak

  • Current #56 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #62 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #76 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #96 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #122 2025-03-03

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

  • Current #58 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #58 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #37 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #37 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #30 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 20.0
ELO Rating: 862.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1551.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.8
Clay: 5.8
Grass: 8.7
Serve Rating: 65.4
Return Rating: 65.4

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Form Index: 51.8
ELO Rating: 906.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1651.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.4
Clay: 7.9
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 99.9
Return Rating: 83.7

Recent Matches

Kamil Majchrzak
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Kamil Majchrzak
vs
0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells in California, the hard-court Masters 1000 season opens with a round of 128 meeting between Kamil Majchrzak and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. The model backs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard to prevail (62.86%) over Kamil Majchrzak (37.14%), with a projected 25.04 total games in the match — suggesting a straight-sets outcome is likelier than a long, drawn-out battle.

Match Analysis

Majchrzak arrives ranked 56 with a modest form index (19.96) and an Elo of 862.85. He shows balanced serve and return numbers (serve index 65.37, return 65.42) but a low surface strength index (5.76). His recent hard-court run has been difficult: three straight defeats, including a 3-set loss in Dubai to Alexei Popyrin and a long 130–174-minute stretch through Doha and the Australian Open where he was unable to convert close matches into wins. Mpetshi Perricard, ranked 58, brings a markedly higher form index (51.83) and superior Elo (906.84). Fatigue is neutral for both players. The gap in mean serve index is pronounced (99.92 vs 65.37) and his mean return index is also notably higher (83.69 vs 65.42), both differences exceeding 5 points — factors that favour his ability to hold serve and press Majchrzak’s service games. His recent results are healthier: two wins in Dubai before a straight-sets loss to Félix Auger-Aliassime; match times indicate he can both finish quickly and grind through longer encounters.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.0 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Kamil Majchrzak - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard) +6.5 Most likely spread: +8 (Kamil Majchrzak wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 8.89 for the match and the double faults prediction at 6.37. On a medium-paced hard court that yields a consistent bounce, predicted aces are moderate — less than grass but more than clay. Given Mpetshi Perricard’s significantly higher serve rating, the predicted aces will likely be skewed toward him, and the expected double faults reflect both players taking some serving risks.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mpetshi Perricard’s edge stems from superior serve and return metrics, higher Elo and stronger recent form. The key factor to watch will be his serve effectiveness: if it fires, Majchrzak’s limited chances to break will dry up quickly.

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