Karen Khachanov vs Aleksandr Shevchenko: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Khachanov arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 15) with a stronger Elo (1632.6) and a form index of 29.06. He shows notable serving and returning numbers (mean serve index 95.90; mean return index 91.23) and a surface strength index on clay of 22.74. Crucially, Khachanov has no minutes of fatigue logged in this event. Shevchenko, ranked 85, has an Elo of 1524.2 and a slightly higher form index (38.52) but a much lower clay surface strength (9.61). He carries 168 minutes on court this week, which is significant on slow, demanding clay courts. The mean return index gap is meaningful: Khachanov’s return (91.23) comfortably outpoints Shevchenko’s (80.48), a difference that favors deeper, more consistent pressure on opponent serve. Recent match patterns reinforce the statistical gap. Khachanov’s last three matches on clay show two first-round exits mixed with a clean win in Madrid’s earlier round — he lost to Jakub Mensik in his most recent outing but has high-level baseline weapons. Shevchenko’s momentum includes a long 168-minute victory in Rome over Camilo Ugo Carabelli, but that marathon likely contributes to his tournament fatigue; prior to that he fell to Jaume Munar in Madrid. The combination of fresher legs and superior return ability lends Khachanov the clear edge.