Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Alex Michelsen vs Karen Khachanov Prediction

Alex Michelsen

Rank: #34
41%
VS

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #16
59%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

Player Metrics

Alex Michelsen

Form Index: 50.0
ELO Rating: 1253.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1610.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 347.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.5
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 88.8

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 71.0
ELO Rating: 1927.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1760.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 310.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.3
Clay: 18.8
Grass: 16.8
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 85.3

Recent Matches

Alex Michelsen

  • Last Match: vs Learner Tien (2-0) hard Toronto 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-1) hard Toronto 151 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tomas Barrios Vera (2-0) hard Toronto 116 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Daniel Evans (0-2) hard Washington 104 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Karen Khachanov

  • Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (2-0) hard Toronto 93 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Emilio Nava (2-1) hard Toronto 130 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Juan Pablo Ficovich (2-0) hard Toronto 87 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Kamil Majchrzak (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alex Michelsen
vs
0
Karen Khachanov
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinals of the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto will feature an intriguing match between Alex Michelsen and Karen Khachanov on hard court. With Khachanov favored to win, he holds a probability of 58.77%, while Michelsen has a 41.23% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games in this matchup is set at 23.0.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 34th, Alex Michelsen shows a form index of 50.02, which indicates fluctuations in his performance. His Elo rating is significantly lower at 1253.11 compared to Khachanov's 1927.43, underscoring the experience gap. Michelsen's cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 347 minutes, slightly higher than Khachanov's 310 minutes, which may impact his stamina. On surface strength, Michelsen has an index of 11.48, while Khachanov leads with 15.33, indicating a more favorable adaptation to hard courts for the latter. Notably, Michelsen's mean serve index of 97.43 surpasses Khachanov's 95.25 by over 2 points, although the difference is not substantial. Nevertheless, Khachanov's return index of 85.34 is weaker than Michelsen's 88.81, providing a slight advantage to Michelsen in this area. In their recent performances, both players have maintained strong forms, with Michelsen winning all three of his last matches. His victories include straight-set wins over Learner Tien, Lorenzo Musetti, and Tomas Barrios Vera. Conversely, Khachanov has also been successful in his last three outings, defeating Casper Ruud, Emilio Nava, and Juan Pablo Ficovich, demonstrating his competitive edge in this tournament.

Final Prediction

Karen Khachanov's higher rank, superior Elo rating, and better surface strength index provide him with a crucial advantage heading into this match. A key factor to observe will be how Michelsen's serve holds up against Khachanov's return game, which could significantly influence the match's outcome.