Karen Khachanov vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Khachanov comes mainly from his serve & return game (+9.3 percentage points) and his recent results at this level (+6.3 pp). Khachanov’s mean serve index (97.15) and especially his mean return index (93.77) underpin that advantage on grass, where quick points and effective returning can be decisive. Cobolli’s higher overall ranking (10 vs 22) and superior Elo (1914.8 vs 1732.0) push the prediction slightly toward him in other respects: overall record & opposition quality contributes +3.5 pp for Cobolli, and age and overall strength add another small edge (+2.6 pp and +2.2 pp respectively). Looking at form and workload, Cobolli carries a stronger form index (68.59) than Khachanov (54.91), while both have identical reported fatigue in this event (348 minutes). Surface strength indices are low for both players—Khachanov 33.98, Cobolli 30.73—so neither is a grass specialist, but Khachanov’s slight edge there and markedly better return index (difference >5 points) matter on a fast surface. Over the last three matches each, both progressed through Wimbledon with two wins apiece: Khachanov beat Hanfmann (3-0) and Harris (3-1) after a loss at Halle; Cobolli beat Duckworth (3-1) and Navone (3-1) after losing at Halle to Tiafoe.