Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Learner Tien vs Alex de Minaur Prediction

Learner Tien

Rank: #18
39%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #10
61%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Why the Model Favors Alex de Minaur

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +6.0 Alex de Minaur
Overall strength +4.6 Alex de Minaur
Surface fit +3.9 Alex de Minaur
Age +3.2 Learner Tien
Fatigue & recent workload +1.0 Learner Tien

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 61% for Alex de Minaur. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Learner Tien

  • Current #18 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #16 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #21 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #29 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #39 2025-10-27

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #10 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #6 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #8 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #6 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Learner Tien

Form Index: 45.4
ELO Rating: 1794.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1836.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 87.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.6
Clay: 27.7
Grass: 15.2
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 90.1

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 62.3
ELO Rating: 1921.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1906.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 122.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 43.5
Clay: 31.2
Grass: 36.3
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Learner Tien
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Alex de Minaur
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Learner Tien
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alex de Minaur is favoured in this Vienna Round of 16, with a 61% win probability to Learner Tien’s 39%. The projection points to a match of about 23.4 games.

Match Analysis

De Minaur’s stronger overall standing and hard-court record are the main reasons he leads the forecast. He is ranked 10th to Tien’s 18th and has the more convincing hard-court profile. Both arrive off Vienna wins: Tien beat Luca Van Assche in straight sets, while de Minaur got past Tomas Machac in three. Tien has spent 35 fewer minutes on court in Vienna, and his stronger return gives him a way to make de Minaur work through service games. That lower workload is a modest counterweight to de Minaur’s broader strength and surface advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Learner Tien - Alex de Minaur) -2.5 Most likely spread: -3 (Alex de Minaur wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Tien is projected to hit 5.4 aces and de Minaur 4.8, with 3.4 double faults for Tien and 2.8 for de Minaur. Their serve profiles are closely matched, so the hard court’s steady bounce points to similar ace totals rather than a major serving gap.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 8 aces Per player: Learner Tien 5.4 + Alex de Minaur 4.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.2 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Learner Tien 3.4 + Alex de Minaur 2.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Learner Tien

Expected 5.4 aces

Alex de Minaur

Expected 4.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Learner Tien

Expected 3.4 double faults

Alex de Minaur

Expected 2.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

34.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Learner Tien's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (34.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tien’s return is the matchup detail most capable of changing the forecast. If he uses it to keep de Minaur under pressure across the match, the favourite’s advantage could narrow.

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