Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 64

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Learner Tien: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Rank: #150
13%
VS

Learner Tien

Rank: #20
87%
Expected Total Games: 38.2
Predicted Winner: Learner Tien

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Ranking Trends

Facundo Diaz Acosta

  • Current #150 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #278 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #221 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #256 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #201 2025-05-26

Learner Tien

  • Current #20 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #28 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #50 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #67 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Form Index: 50.6
ELO Rating: 1591.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1599.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.1
Clay: 15.6
Grass: 3.8
Serve Rating: 93.4
Return Rating: 93.3

Learner Tien

Form Index: 70.7
ELO Rating: 1846.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1864.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.7
Clay: 27.3
Grass: 16.1
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Facundo Diaz Acosta
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs August Holmgren (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Remy Bertola (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 110 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Dusan Lajovic (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Learner Tien
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Cristian Garin (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (2-1) clay Geneva 149 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Bublik (2-1) clay Geneva 96 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-1) clay Geneva 117 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-0) clay Geneva 109 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Facundo Diaz Acosta
vs
0
Learner Tien
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, Round of 64 on clay at a grand slam, Learner Tien is the strong favorite to advance. The model projects Tien to win with an 86.60% probability against Facundo Díaz Acosta’s 13.40%, and forecasts a relatively short contest with an expected 38.21 total games.

Match Analysis

The matchup is lopsided on paper. Tien is ranked 20 with an Elo of 1846.88 and a form index of 70.65, while Díaz Acosta sits at 150 with an Elo of 1591.07 and a 50.62 form index. Fatigue is a stark contrast: Díaz Acosta arrives with 522 minutes logged in this event versus Tien’s 174, a gap that strongly favors the fresher player. Both players show modest clay-specific strength indices (Díaz Acosta 15.59, Tien 27.34), but Tien’s surface number and higher overall ratings give him the edge. Their mean serve indices are close (93.42 vs 94.60), so no clear serving dominance is indicated, but Díaz Acosta’s mean return index (93.26) is noticeably higher than Tien’s (87.68), a difference worth noting heading into longer baseline exchanges. Recent form reinforces the projection. Díaz Acosta has won his last three matches on clay at Roland Garros, including a straight-sets win over Zhizhen Zhang and two other victories, all recorded with long match durations of 174 minutes in the dataset. Tien is also on a three-match winning streak, beating Cristian Garin at Roland Garros and posting two wins in Geneva on clay; his recent matches show a mix of marathon and more efficient wins (durations of 174, 149 and 96 minutes).

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.2 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Facundo Diaz Acosta - Learner Tien) -4.5 Most likely spread: -5 (Learner Tien wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 12.87 total, while the predicted expected double faults sit at 7.19. Clay’s slower ball and higher bounce typically reduces ace counts and can increase unforced serve errors late in matches, which supports the expected double faults figure. Both players carry strong serve indices, so the predicted aces will be spread between them rather than driven by a single big server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.2 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

30.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Facundo Diaz Acosta's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (51.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tien’s superior ranking, Elo, current form and markedly lower fatigue give him a clear advantage in this clash. The key factor to watch will be how Díaz Acosta’s heavy minutes in the tournament affect his movement and consistency against Tien’s higher-level game.

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