Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Learner Tien vs Zachary Svajda Prediction

Learner Tien

Rank: #16
55%
VS

Zachary Svajda

Rank: #82
45%
Expected Total Games: 24.7
Predicted Winner: Learner Tien

Why the Model Favors Learner Tien

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +4.8 Zachary Svajda
Overall strength +4.5 Learner Tien
Surface fit +3.7 Learner Tien
Recent record by level +2.6 Learner Tien
Age +2.5 Learner Tien

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 55% for Learner Tien. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Learner Tien

  • Current #16 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #17 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #22 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #26 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #36 2025-09-29

Zachary Svajda

  • Current #82 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #66 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #84 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #142 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #132 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Learner Tien

Form Index: 43.6
ELO Rating: 1800.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1835.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.1
Clay: 27.7
Grass: 15.2
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 90.1

Zachary Svajda

Form Index: 39.8
ELO Rating: 1638.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1666.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 79.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.3
Clay: 21.5
Grass: 12.9
Serve Rating: 93.5
Return Rating: 85.5

Recent Matches

Learner Tien
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Zachary Svajda
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Learner Tien
vs
0
Zachary Svajda
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Learner Tien is a narrow favorite in Shanghai’s Round of 64, with the forecast giving him 55% to Zachary Svajda’s 45%. The expected total is 24.7 games, pointing to a potentially close match.

Match Analysis

Tien’s higher ranking, stronger overall level and better hard-court fit are the main reasons he is favored. At No. 16, he is well ahead of Svajda, ranked 82, and the forecast gives Tien the broader advantage despite the modest win-probability gap. Svajda’s serve-and-return game is a counterweight, making this a contest where Tien cannot rely on his ranking alone. Svajda also arrives off a straight-set win over Fabian Marozsan in Shanghai, though he has logged 79 minutes at the tournament while Tien has yet to play there.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.7 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Learner Tien - Zachary Svajda) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Svajda is projected for 6.5 aces and 2.6 double faults, compared with 5.7 aces and 3.7 double faults for Tien. The forecast gives Svajda a slight ace advantage, while Tien’s higher double-fault estimate could make his service games less tidy.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.0 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Learner Tien 5.7 + Zachary Svajda 6.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.2 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Learner Tien 3.6 + Zachary Svajda 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Learner Tien

Expected 5.7 aces

Zachary Svajda

Expected 6.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Learner Tien

Expected 3.6 double faults

Zachary Svajda

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Learner Tien's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (35.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Svajda’s serve-and-return strength gives him a direct way to overturn the forecast. If it keeps Tien from gaining control of rallies, the narrow gap between them could disappear.

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