Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Lorenzo Musetti vs Flavio Cobolli Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #10
63%
VS

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #26
37%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

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Ranking Trends

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Current #10 2025-08-18
  • 3 mo ago #7 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #17 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #17 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #18 2024-08-26

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #26 2025-08-18
  • 3 mo ago #26 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #39 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #32 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #31 2024-08-26

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 50.8
ELO Rating: 2389.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1718.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.9
Clay: 23.9
Grass: 22.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.3

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 70.0
ELO Rating: 1347.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1666.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 13.1
Grass: 11.8
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Musetti
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Flavio Cobolli
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Musetti
vs
0
Flavio Cobolli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

As the US Open progresses into the Round of 32, Lorenzo Musetti faces off against Flavio Cobolli in New York on a hard surface. With Musetti ranked 10th and boasting a 63.09% probability of victory, Cobolli, ranked 26th, comes in with a 36.91% chance. The predicted total number of games played in this matchup is set at 36.

Match Analysis

Lorenzo Musetti's current form index stands at 50.81, complemented by an Elo rating of 2389.33. His fatigue level, at 174 minutes, reflects a relatively fresh player who has recently secured a convincing win over David Goffin. Musetti's surface strength index of 12.89 suggests he adapts well to hard courts, while his mean serve index of 96.88 and mean return index of 88.30 indicate a strong all-around game. Notably, there is a slight edge in his serve performance compared to Cobolli. Flavio Cobolli, with a higher form index of 69.98, has shown resilience in his recent matches, winning a challenging bout against Jenson Brooksby in his last outing. His Elo rating of 1347.26 demonstrates significant potential, yet his fatigue level at 348 minutes could hinder his performance. Cobolli's surface strength index is lower at 9.65, and while his mean serve index of 95.23 is competitive, his mean return index of 88.14 is less effective compared to Musetti’s, indicating a potential struggle in returning serves.

Final Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti holds a distinct advantage due to his higher rank, superior Elo rating, and better performance indices, particularly in serve and return metrics. A key factor to monitor in this match will be Musetti's ability to maintain his serving efficiency, which could dictate the flow of the game against Cobolli.

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