Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #10
54%
VS

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #27
46%
Expected Total Games: 26.9
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

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Ranking Trends

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Current #10 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #5 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #9 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #10 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #9 2025-05-05

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #27 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #19 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #21 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #23 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 43.8
ELO Rating: 1856.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1898.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 88.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.3
Clay: 42.6
Grass: 32.2
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 92.6

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 56.8
ELO Rating: 1831.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1862.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 69.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.3
Clay: 30.3
Grass: 15.4
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 90.5

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Musetti
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Musetti
vs
0
Francisco Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rome, on clay, under Masters 1000 conditions brings a high-stakes Round of 32 clash between Lorenzo Musetti and Francisco Cerundolo. The model leans to Musetti as the predicted winner (53.85% vs 46.15%), with a relatively tight match expected — about 26.94 total games on average.

Match Analysis

Musetti arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 10) with a slightly superior Elo (1856.7 vs 1831.4) and a clearer surface edge: his clay surface strength index (42.6) is noticeably above Cerundolo’s (30.3). Musetti’s form index (43.8) lags behind Cerundolo’s (56.8), however, and he carries more minutes on court this week (88 vs 69), so physical freshness will be a factor. Both men possess very similar serve and return profiles — their mean serve indices are nearly identical and their mean return indices are close — so service dominance is unlikely to be decisive by itself. Over the last three matches both players show a 2-1 pattern. Musetti beat Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in Rome after a Madrid campaign that included a loss to Jiri Lehecka and a win over Tallon Griekspoor. Cerundolo opened Rome with a straight-sets win over Alejandro Tabilo, bookended by a Madrid loss to Alexander Blockx and a win over Luciano Darderi. The recent results underline Cerundolo’s sharper form this fortnight but also Musetti’s higher-class clay pedigree and slightly better underlying ratings, which explain the narrow edge in the projection.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.9 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Lorenzo Musetti - Francisco Cerundolo) +0.5 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is low — predicted aces sit at about 6.33 — consistent with clay’s slower pace. The expected double faults are modestly elevated at 4.72, reflecting longer rallies and accumulated fatigue on a slow surface. Neither player posts a significantly higher serve rating, so predicted aces are unlikely to be skewed strongly toward one man; the court and match length will be the main determinants of ace and double-fault counts.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.3 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

28.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Lorenzo Musetti's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (30.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Musetti’s combination of ranking, marginally higher Elo and superior clay index gives him the slight edge despite heavier workload this week. Watch how Musetti manages fatigue and whether Cerundolo can exploit long rallies to tilt tight service games — that physical subplot will likely decide the outcome.

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