Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #8
70%
VS

Lorenzo Sonego

Rank: #45
30%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

Ranking Trends

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Current Rank: #8 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #10 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #11 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #17 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #16 (2024-10-28)

Lorenzo Sonego

  • Current Rank: #45 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #38 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #43 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #35 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #52 (2024-10-28)

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 58.3
ELO Rating: 1978.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1729.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.4
Clay: 23.9
Grass: 22.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 87.7

Lorenzo Sonego

Form Index: 36.2
ELO Rating: 1062.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1592.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 88.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 84.9

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Musetti
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Vienna 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-0) hard Vienna 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-0) hard Vienna 93 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-0) hard Vienna 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (0-2) hard Brussels 83 min

Lorenzo Sonego
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Korda (2-0) hard Paris 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Basel 122 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (1-2) hard Stockholm 163 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fery (2-0) hard Stockholm 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Yannick Hanfmann (1-2) hard Shanghai 115 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Lorenzo Musetti
vs
0
Lorenzo Sonego
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Paris Masters 1000, Lorenzo Musetti faces off against Lorenzo Sonego on hard court. With a predicted win probability of 69.93% for Musetti compared to Sonego's 30.07%, the match is expected to feature a total of approximately 23 games.

Match Analysis

Lorenzo Musetti, currently ranked 8th, boasts a strong form index of 58.31 and an Elo rating of nearly 1978, reflecting his recent competitive performances. He comes into this match with no recorded fatigue from the current tournament, which positions him advantageously. His surface strength index of 12.40 indicates a solid proficiency on hard courts. In terms of serve, Musetti has a mean serve index of 96.91, slightly higher than Sonego's 96.11, but more significantly, his mean return index of 87.73 surpasses Sonego's 84.95 by over 5 points, suggesting he is likely to capitalize on Sonego's service games effectively. On the other hand, Lorenzo Sonego is ranked 45th and carries a form index of 36.20, indicating struggles in recent matches. His Elo rating of 1062 reflects a considerable gap in performance levels compared to Musetti. Sonego enters this match with a cumulative fatigue of 88 minutes from the tournament, potentially impacting his endurance. In his last three matches, Sonego has secured one win against Sebastian Korda but suffered defeats against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Ugo Humbert, highlighting inconsistencies in his play.

Final Prediction

Musetti's superior rank, form, and return capabilities provide him with a distinct advantage over Sonego. A key factor to observe will be Musetti's ability to break Sonego’s serve, especially given the return index difference, which could dictate the flow of the match.