Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #5
50%
VS

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #9
50%
Expected Total Games: 38.1
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

Ranking Trends

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Current Rank: #5 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #8 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #7 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #11 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #15 (2025-01-13)

Taylor Fritz

  • Current Rank: #9 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #4 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #4 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #4 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #4 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 97.4
ELO Rating: 3862.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1769.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.1
Clay: 33.0
Grass: 31.8
Serve Rating: 71.5
Return Rating: 69.2

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 89.0
ELO Rating: 3840.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2036.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.1
Clay: 29.6
Grass: 33.8
Serve Rating: 98.4
Return Rating: 92.4

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Musetti
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Raphael Collignon (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Hong Kong 98 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (2-1) hard Hong Kong 163 min

Taylor Fritz
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Paris 86 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Paris 95 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Musetti
vs
0
Taylor Fritz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 match at the 2026 Australian Open is set to be a thrilling contest between Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz on the hard courts of Australia. With both players displaying exceptional form, the match is predicted to be closely contested, with Musetti slightly favored to win at a probability of 50.03%, while Fritz holds a 49.97% chance. The expected total number of games in this match is projected to be around 38.07.

Match Analysis

Lorenzo Musetti currently ranks 5th in the world and boasts a strong form index of 97.42, alongside an Elo rating of 3862.19. His surface strength index stands at 23.10, reflecting his proficiency on hard courts. Musetti's mean serve index is 71.54, while his mean return index is at 69.21. In contrast, Taylor Fritz is ranked 9th with a form index of 88.99 and an Elo rating of 3840.00. Fritz's surface strength index is slightly higher at 24.14, and he possesses a remarkable mean serve index of 98.44, significantly greater than Musetti's by over 26 points. Furthermore, Fritz's mean return index of 92.42 suggests he is particularly adept at returning serves, which could play a crucial role in the match. Both players have demonstrated solid performances in their last three matches. Musetti has won all of his encounters in the tournament, with dominant victories including a clean sweep against Lorenzo Sonego. Fritz, meanwhile, has also shown strong form, winning his last three matches, albeit with varying degrees of competition, including a recent victory over Stan Wawrinka. Each player's momentum heading into this match will be pivotal in determining the outcome.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.1 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.57 aces, reflecting the balanced serving capabilities of both players on hard courts. Given the surface rewards both power and precision, the predicted aces count could be influenced significantly by Fritz’s superior serve rating. Additionally, the expected double faults prediction stands at approximately 4.47, indicating that both players may face some challenges in maintaining service consistency throughout the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti’s slight edge in overall form and performance history gives him a favorable outlook against Taylor Fritz, despite the latter's powerful serving capabilities. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Musetti can neutralize Fritz’s serve, as this could heavily influence the dynamics of the match.

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