Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Lorenzo Sonego vs Ignacio Buse: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Lorenzo Sonego

Rank: #66
41%
VS

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #62
59%
Expected Total Games: 25.4
Predicted Winner: Ignacio Buse

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Ranking Trends

Lorenzo Sonego

  • Current #66 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #60 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #42 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #36 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #44 2025-05-05

Ignacio Buse

  • Current #62 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #98 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #109 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #140 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #171 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Sonego

Form Index: 35.3
ELO Rating: 1602.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1599.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.8
Clay: 10.4
Grass: 22.8
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 91.0

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 35.5
ELO Rating: 1565.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1621.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.2
Clay: 13.0
Grass: 6.6
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Sonego
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Ignacio Buse
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Sonego
vs
0
Ignacio Buse
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rome Masters 1000, round of 128 on clay in Italy, Lorenzo Sonego meets Ignacio Buse in an early-season clash with big ranking implications. The model gives the edge to Ignacio Buse (59.45%) over Lorenzo Sonego (40.55%) and projects a relatively short encounter with an expected total of 25.41 games.

Match Analysis

Sonego arrives ranked 66 with an Elo of 1602.9 and a form index of 35.30; his surface strength index on clay is 10.38 and cumulative tournament fatigue is 0.0 minutes. Buse is marginally higher in the rankings at 62 with an Elo of 1565.8 and a similar form index of 35.51; his clay surface strength index is 13.00 and fatigue is also 0.0. Both players show strong baseline and serving profiles by their mean serve (Sonego 96.14, Buse 94.75) and mean return indices (Sonego 90.97, Buse 87.93), with no single player holding a clearly superior serve or return edge by the 5-point threshold. Recent form paints a mixed picture. Sonego has one win and two defeats in his last three — a win over Pedro Martinez in Barcelona followed by losses to Andrey Rublev (Barcelona) and Dusan Lajovic (Madrid). Buse likewise is 1–2 across his last three: a solid win over Adrian Mannarino in Madrid was followed by defeats to Corentin Moutet (Barcelona) and Arthur Fils (Madrid). Both have been tested on clay recently, with long matches in Madrid indicating readiness for physically demanding rallies.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.4 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Lorenzo Sonego - Ignacio Buse) -0.1 Most likely spread: -1 (Ignacio Buse wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction calls for a modest count: predicted aces in the match are 9.54. Clay’s slower, higher-bouncing characteristics typically suppress ace totals, which aligns with this predicted aces figure. The double faults prediction is 3.86 expected double faults; longer rallies and physical strain on clay can elevate double faults even when players enter fresh. Neither player posts a dramatically higher serve rating that would materially inflate the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.5 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Lorenzo Sonego's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (31.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Buse’s slight ranking edge and comparable form give him the projected advantage in a tight, tactical clay duel. The key factor to watch will be return performance and break-point conversion on the slower surface — whoever steps up on return games should determine the outcome.

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