Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Lorenzo Sonego vs Yannick Hanfmann Prediction

Lorenzo Sonego

Rank: #44
62%
VS

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #159
38%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Sonego

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Ranking Trends

Lorenzo Sonego

  • Current #44 2025-09-22
  • 3 mo ago #47 2025-06-30
  • 6 mo ago #38 2025-03-31
  • 9 mo ago #53 2024-12-30
  • 12 mo ago #49 2024-09-30

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current #159 2025-09-22
  • 3 mo ago #135 2025-06-30
  • 6 mo ago #123 2025-03-31
  • 9 mo ago #96 2024-12-30
  • 12 mo ago #85 2024-09-30

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Sonego

Form Index: 27.9
ELO Rating: 1051.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1593.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.7
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 9.6
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 84.9

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 46.7
ELO Rating: 686.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1598.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 76.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.2
Clay: 6.5
Grass: 6.3
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Sonego
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Beijing 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marcos Giron (0-2) hard Chengdu 103 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-1) hard Chengdu 130 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (1-2) hard Winston Salem 141 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Stefan Dostanic (2-1) hard Winston Salem 173 min

Yannick Hanfmann
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jason Kubler (2-0) hard Shanghai 76 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (0-2) hard Chengdu 81 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (1-2) clay Kitzbuhel 131 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-1) clay Kitzbuhel 162 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Lukas Neumayer (2-0) clay Kitzbuhel 101 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Lorenzo Sonego
vs
0
Yannick Hanfmann
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Shanghai Masters 1000, Lorenzo Sonego faces Yannick Hanfmann on a hard court in China. The predicted winner is Lorenzo Sonego, with a 61.74% probability of victory compared to Hanfmann's 38.26%. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 24 games.

Match Analysis

Lorenzo Sonego, ranked 44th, boasts a form index of 27.94 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 1051.33 compared to Hanfmann's 686.95. Additionally, Sonego shows minimal fatigue (0 minutes) from the tournament, while Hanfmann has accumulated 76 minutes of fatigue, potentially impacting his performance. In terms of surface strength, Sonego's index stands at 9.73, well above Hanfmann's 5.21, indicating an advantage on hard courts. Notably, Sonego's mean serve index of 97.58 is higher than Hanfmann's 95.61 by over 5 points, which could play a crucial role in determining service games. Recent performances indicate a contrasting trajectory for both players. Sonego's last three matches include a win against Juan Manuel Cerundolo but consecutive losses to Alexander Zverev and Marcos Giron. In contrast, Hanfmann's recent outings include a victory over Jason Kubler in Shanghai, but he suffered defeats against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Arthur Rinderknech in earlier tournaments. This disparity in performance and momentum could influence the match's outcome.

Final Prediction

Lorenzo Sonego's superior ranking, form, and minimal fatigue provide him with a distinct advantage heading into this match against Yannick Hanfmann. The key factor to watch will be Sonego's ability to leverage his stronger service game, which could dictate the pace and outcome of the encounter.

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