Paris
France
Hard
Masters 1000
Quarterfinals
Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Prediction
Expected Total Games:
24.4
Predicted Winner:
Rinky Hijikata
Why the Model Favors Rinky Hijikata
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 58% for Rinky Hijikata. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.
Set it upRanking Trends
Luca Van Assche
- Current #47 2026-11-02
- 3 mo ago #49 2026-08-03
- 6 mo ago #97 2026-05-04
- 9 mo ago #127 2026-02-02
- 12 mo ago #172 2025-11-03
Rinky Hijikata
- Current #83 2026-11-02
- 3 mo ago #93 2026-08-03
- 6 mo ago #96 2026-05-04
- 9 mo ago #103 2026-02-02
- 12 mo ago #127 2025-11-03
Player Metrics
Luca Van Assche
Form Index:
65.2
ELO Rating:
1721.6
Glicko2 Rating:
1699.1
Current Fatigue (minutes):
395.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
26.3
Clay:
21.3
Grass:
2.0
Serve Rating:
95.1
Return Rating:
89.7
Rinky Hijikata
Form Index:
65.2
ELO Rating:
1757.2
Glicko2 Rating:
1732.1
Current Fatigue (minutes):
480.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
32.2
Clay:
7.4
Grass:
10.4
Serve Rating:
95.3
Return Rating:
86.6
Recent Matches
Luca Van Assche
- Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-1) hard Paris 158 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Learner Tien (2-0) hard Paris 123 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (2-0) hard Paris 114 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Learner Tien (0-2) hard Vienna 87 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-2) hard Marseille 213 min
Rinky Hijikata
- Last Match: vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-1) hard Paris 126 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Novak Djokovic (2-1) hard Paris 134 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (2-0) hard Paris 64 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) hard Paris 92 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Jaime Faria (2-0) hard Paris 64 min
Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)
0
Luca Van Assche
vs
0
Rinky Hijikata
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0
Key Prediction Insights
Rinky Hijikata is the pick, though the forecast is not one-sided: he has a 58% chance, against 42% for Luca Van Assche. The Paris Quarterfinals are projected to last 24.4 games.
Match Analysis
Hijikata’s recent wins over Novak Djokovic and Tomas Martin Etcheverry support the forecast’s lean toward his record against stronger opposition. Van Assche has also built momentum, winning his first three matches here, including against Lorenzo Musetti, so the gap in recent form is small.
The serve-and-return matchup is finely balanced. Van Assche is the stronger returner, while Hijikata has a slight serving advantage and the better hard-court profile. Van Assche has spent 395 minutes on court compared with Hijikata’s 480, a workload gap that could matter if the match becomes physically demanding.
Total Games Predictions
Expected Total Games in Match
24.4
Most likely outcome: 23 games
Total Games Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total games outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total games ≤ X
Games Spread Predictions
Expected Games Spread (Luca Van Assche - Rinky Hijikata)
-1.3
Most likely spread:
-2 (Rinky Hijikata wins 2 more games)
Games Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each games spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
Aces and Double Faults Predictions
The projection has Van Assche at 6.2 aces and Hijikata at 6.5, with their serve strengths close enough to point to a similar output. Van Assche is projected for 3.2 double faults and Hijikata 2.3, making Van Assche’s serving consistency the more notable risk.
Expected Total Aces
12.4
Most likely: 10 aces
Per player: Luca Van Assche 6.2 + Rinky Hijikata 6.5
Expected Total Double Faults
5.4
Most likely: 4 double faults
Per player: Luca Van Assche 3.2 + Rinky Hijikata 2.3
Aces Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each ace count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of aces ≤ X
Aces by Player
Luca Van Assche
Expected 6.2 aces
Rinky Hijikata
Expected 6.5 aces
Double Faults Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each double fault count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of double faults ≤ X
Double Faults by Player
Luca Van Assche
Expected 3.2 double faults
Rinky Hijikata
Expected 2.3 double faults
Match Format Predictions
Tiebreak Likelihood
Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match
39.0%
Predicted:
No tiebreak
Exact Score Distribution BO3
Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Luca Van Assche's perspective)
0-2
Most likely set score (32.0%)
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Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
Final Prediction
Van Assche’s return game gives him his best chance to upset the forecast: if he turns that advantage into sustained pressure on Hijikata’s serve, the narrow difference between them could disappear. Hijikata’s recent run gives him a strong counter, but his heavier workload is the main concern.
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