Auckland New Zealand Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Luciano Darderi vs Alejandro Tabilo Prediction

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #24
50%
VS

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #81
50%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Tabilo

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Ranking Trends

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #24 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #26 2025-10-13
  • 6 mo ago #55 2025-07-14
  • 9 mo ago #47 2025-04-14
  • 12 mo ago #45 2025-01-13

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current #81 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #73 2025-10-13
  • 6 mo ago #103 2025-07-14
  • 9 mo ago #31 2025-04-14
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 7.6
ELO Rating: 1579.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1619.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.0
Clay: 34.9
Grass: 31.9
Serve Rating: 37.9
Return Rating: 36.1

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 69.8
ELO Rating: 702.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1695.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 62
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.1
Clay: 19.2
Grass: 18.6
Serve Rating: 99.0
Return Rating: 93.3

Recent Matches

Luciano Darderi
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Alejandro Tabilo
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) hard Auckland 62 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Michael Mmoh (0-2) hard Hong Kong 111 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Yi Zhou (2-1) hard Hong Kong 114 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Van Assche (2-1) hard Hong Kong 167 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Vienna 68 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luciano Darderi
vs
1
Alejandro Tabilo
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Auckland tournament, Luciano Darderi and Alejandro Tabilo will compete on hard courts in New Zealand. This ATP 250 event sees Tabilo slightly favored to win with a probability of 50.30%, compared to Darderi's 49.70%. The anticipated total number of games played in this closely matched contest is projected to be around 24.

Match Analysis

Luciano Darderi, currently ranked 24th, has a solid form index of 7.62 but has struggled recently, losing all three of his last matches. His Elo rating stands at 1579, and he shows no cumulative fatigue, which could be a factor in his performance. His surface strength index is 26.96, indicating moderate proficiency on hard courts, while his mean serve index of 37.93 and mean return index of 36.10 suggest he has room for improvement in both serving and returning. On the other hand, Alejandro Tabilo, ranked 81st, exhibits a significantly higher form index of 69.76, indicating better current performance levels. With an Elo rating of approximately 703, he has a slight edge in terms of recent hard court play. He has accumulated 62 minutes of fatigue during the tournament but boasts a strong surface strength index of 30.13, which reflects his capability on hard surfaces. Tabilo's mean serve index of 99.01 is notably higher than Darderi's, creating a substantial gap of over 60 points, while his mean return index of 93.32 is also superior by more than 57 points.

Final Prediction

Alejandro Tabilo's recent form and superior serving and returning capabilities give him the edge in this matchup against Darderi. Key factors to observe will be Tabilo's ability to maintain his service effectiveness and whether Darderi can find a way to counteract Tabilo's powerful play on hard courts.

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