Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Mackenzie McDonald vs Luciano Darderi Prediction

Mackenzie McDonald

Rank: #95
40%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #34
60%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

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Ranking Trends

Mackenzie McDonald

  • Current #95 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #99 2025-05-19
  • 6 mo ago #115 2025-02-17
  • 9 mo ago #133 2024-11-18
  • 12 mo ago #140 2024-08-19

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #34 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #45 2025-05-19
  • 6 mo ago #61 2025-02-17
  • 9 mo ago #44 2024-11-18
  • 12 mo ago #38 2024-08-19

Player Metrics

Mackenzie McDonald

Form Index: 38.2
ELO Rating: 520.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1601.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 152.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.1
Clay: 3.2
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 85.7

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 70.0
ELO Rating: 1242.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1623.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 11.0
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 85.7

Recent Matches

Mackenzie McDonald
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Holt (2-1) hard Winston Salem 152 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (0-2) hard Cincinnati 91 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) hard Toronto 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs David Goffin (2-0) hard Toronto 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Washington 75 min

Luciano Darderi
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mackenzie McDonald
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Mackenzie McDonald and Luciano Darderi at the Winston-Salem tournament marks an intriguing Round of 32 encounter on hard court. Darderi is favored to win with a probability of 60.11%, while McDonald holds a 39.89% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played is set at 24.

Match Analysis

Mackenzie McDonald, currently ranked 95, has been struggling for form, reflected in his form index of 38.22 and an Elo rating of 520. He has amassed 152 minutes of fatigue from the current tournament, which may impact his performance. His surface strength index stands at 6.14, with a mean serve index of 96.45 and a mean return index of 85.75. Notably, the difference in mean serve indices is minimal, but his return index is slightly lower than Darderi's, which may play a crucial role in their exchanges. Luciano Darderi, on the other hand, enjoys a higher ranking at 34 and showcases a robust form index of 70.02, alongside a significantly higher Elo rating of 1242. With zero cumulative fatigue, Darderi is well-rested and prepared for battle. His surface strength index of 7.69 is complemented by a mean serve index of 95.43 and a mean return index of 85.73. Darderi's recent performances have been stellar, winning all three of his last matches without dropping a set, which underscores his current momentum.

Final Prediction

Darderi's superior ranking, form, and lack of fatigue provide him with a distinct edge heading into the match. A key factor to watch will be how McDonald manages his fatigue and whether he can elevate his return game against Darderi's consistent play.

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