Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Luciano Darderi vs Rinky Hijikata Prediction

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #23
53%
VS

Rinky Hijikata

Rank: #85
47%
Expected Total Games: 26.3
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Why the Model Favors Luciano Darderi

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall record & opposition quality +3.1 Rinky Hijikata
Overall strength +2.7 Luciano Darderi
Surface fit +2.1 Luciano Darderi
Head-to-head +0.9 Luciano Darderi

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 53% for Luciano Darderi. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #23 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #22 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #20 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #23 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-11-03

Rinky Hijikata

  • Current #85 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #93 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #96 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #103 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #127 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 37.4
ELO Rating: 1730.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1779.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.5
Clay: 33.7
Grass: 15.5
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 88.4

Rinky Hijikata

Form Index: 43.3
ELO Rating: 1646.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1686.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 156.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.7
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 10.4
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Luciano Darderi
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Rinky Hijikata
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Luciano Darderi
vs
2
Rinky Hijikata
Hard
1 - 2
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Luciano Darderi is a narrow favorite, with a 53% win probability to Rinky Hijikata’s 47%, and 26.3 games expected. The Round of 64 in Paris looks close despite Darderi’s stronger overall profile.

Match Analysis

Darderi’s advantage comes from his stronger overall level and slightly better fit on hard courts. Ranked 23rd to Hijikata’s 85th, he also has the stronger return profile, which could help him apply pressure in a match projected to feature plenty of games. Hijikata’s record against his opposition helps keep the forecast tight, and his recent Paris results are encouraging: he beat Jaime Faria and Vit Kopriva in straight sets. He has, however, spent 156 minutes on court in the tournament, while Darderi has yet to play here.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.3 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Luciano Darderi - Rinky Hijikata) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Hijikata is projected to hit 7.6 aces and 2.8 double faults, against 7.3 aces and 3.0 double faults for Darderi. Their serve profiles are close, and the hard court’s consistent bounce should give both opportunities to serve effectively without a large expected gap in aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.4 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Luciano Darderi 7.3 + Rinky Hijikata 7.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Luciano Darderi 3.0 + Rinky Hijikata 2.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Luciano Darderi

Expected 7.3 aces

Rinky Hijikata

Expected 7.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Luciano Darderi

Expected 3.0 double faults

Rinky Hijikata

Expected 2.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Luciano Darderi's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (29.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hijikata’s pair of straight-set wins in Paris is the clearest threat to Darderi’s narrow advantage, especially if he can maintain that level despite the extra time on court.

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