Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Luciano Darderi vs Roman Andres Burruchaga: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #20
57%
VS

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Rank: #56
43%
Expected Total Games: 26.9
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

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Ranking Trends

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #20 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #26 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #34 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #45 2025-05-19

Roman Andres Burruchaga

  • Current #56 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #102 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #107 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #144 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #117 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 50.4
ELO Rating: 1800.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1809.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.9
Clay: 35.4
Grass: 15.6
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 89.8

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Form Index: 36.5
ELO Rating: 1570.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1631.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.7
Clay: 15.5
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 93.9
Return Rating: 90.4

Recent Matches

Luciano Darderi
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Roman Andres Burruchaga
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luciano Darderi
vs
0
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Hamburg on clay in the Round of 32 of this ATP 500 event, Luciano Darderi is narrowly favoured to progress against Roman Andrés Burruchaga. The model gives Darderi a 57.45% chance to win versus 42.55% for Burruchaga, with a projected total of about 26.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Darderi arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 20) with an Elo of 1800.0 and a form index of 50.36. His surface strength index on clay (35.36) is substantially higher than Burruchaga’s (15.53), and both come into the match with zero minutes of tournament fatigue recorded so far. Serve and return indices are strong for both—Darderi’s mean serve and return indices sit around 95.16 and 89.84, while Burruchaga posts 93.91 and 90.44 respectively—so neither holds a markedly superior serving profile on paper. Recent results underline why Darderi is favoured: he beat Rafael Jodar and Alexander Zverev in Rome before a straight-sets loss to Casper Ruud, with two of those matches very lengthy (188 and 144 minutes). Burruchaga’s last three show one comfortable win (61 minutes), then longer defeats to Tommy Paul (160 minutes) and Mattia Bellucci (114 minutes), giving him a 1-2 recent record compared with Darderi’s 2-1 in the same span. Those match durations hint at resilience from both, but Darderi’s wins over higher-profile opponents bolster his standing here.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.9 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Luciano Darderi - Roman Andres Burruchaga) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: the predicted aces count is 5.64 for the match, while the expected double faults total is 4.98. Clay’s slower, higher-bouncing surface typically suppresses ace numbers and can increase the incidence of unforced serving errors, which is reflected in the predicted aces and the double faults prediction. Neither player posts a dramatically superior serve index, so the modest predicted aces are likely a function of surface more than a dominant server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 5.6 Most likely: 5 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Luciano Darderi's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (38.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s higher ranking, stronger Elo and markedly better clay surface index give him the edge in Hamburg. The key factor to watch will be how each player’s return game converts on clay—break opportunities and how they handle extended rallies should decide this tight encounter.

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