Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #39
50%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #24
50%
Expected Total Games: 36.9
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Baez

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Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 74.0
ELO Rating: 1290.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1679.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.8
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 70.7
Return Rating: 95.3

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 53.2
ELO Rating: 1508.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1622.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 12.7
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 91.5

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez

Luciano Darderi

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Baez
vs
1
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Australian Open in 2026 has reached the Round of 64, where Sebastian Baez faces Luciano Darderi on hard courts in Australia. With a close matchup anticipated, the predicted winner is Sebastian Baez, who holds a slight edge with a probability of 50.31% of winning compared to Darderi’s 49.69%. The expected total number of games in the match is approximately 36.92.

Match Analysis

Sebastian Baez, currently ranked 39, has a form index of 73.98, indicating solid performance lately, alongside an Elo rating of 1290.57. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament is 174 minutes, which could impact his stamina. Notably, Baez has a mean serve index of 70.73 and a mean return index of 95.33, demonstrating his strength in returning serves effectively. In contrast, Luciano Darderi, ranked 24, boasts a higher Elo rating of 1508.12 and a surface strength index of 8.86, reflecting his prowess on hard courts. Darderi's form index is lower at 53.18, suggesting he has been less consistent recently. His mean serve index of 97.36 provides a significant advantage over Baez’s serve metrics, with a difference of more than 5 points. In their recent performances, Baez won his last match against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, although he faced a defeat against Jakub Mensik in Auckland prior to that. Darderi, on the other hand, comes off a strong win against Cristian Garin, having lost only one set in his last three matches, indicating a more positive trend in his recent form. His ability to secure victories, particularly in the last match, may bolster his confidence against Baez.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.9 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Sebastian Baez versus Luciano Darderi. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Sebastian Baez versus Luciano Darderi. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi) +0.8 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Sebastian Baez versus Luciano Darderi. Positive values indicate Sebastian Baez winning more games, negative values indicate Luciano Darderi winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Sebastian Baez versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.28 aces, with both players likely contributing to this count given the hard court surface, which generally supports a balanced number of aces. The expected double faults in the match are approximately 3.75, with both players needing to be cautious with their serves. Darderi's significantly higher mean serve index may lead to a higher ace count, while both players should focus on minimizing double faults to maintain their service games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Sebastian Baez versus Luciano Darderi. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Sebastian Baez versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Sebastian Baez versus Luciano Darderi. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Sebastian Baez versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Sebastian Baez’s edge in return capabilities and recent match experience may play a crucial role in his performance against Darderi. Key factors to watch include how well Baez can handle Darderi's powerful serve and whether he can capitalize on his return game to break serve opportunities throughout the match.

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