Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Luciano Darderi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #21
39%
VS

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #43
61%
Expected Total Games: 25.4
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Why the Model Favors Stefanos Tsitsipas

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +8.4 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Recent record by level +3.7 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Age +1.6 Luciano Darderi
Overall record & opposition quality +1.6 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Fatigue & recent workload +0.8 Luciano Darderi

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 61% for Stefanos Tsitsipas. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #21 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #16 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #21 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #24 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #29 2025-09-29

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #43 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #87 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #48 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #34 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #25 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 49.9
ELO Rating: 1773.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1795.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.8
Clay: 32.5
Grass: 15.5
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 88.8

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 64.3
ELO Rating: 1832.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1771.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 76.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.8
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Luciano Darderi
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Stefanos Tsitsipas
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luciano Darderi
vs
0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Stefanos Tsitsipas is favored, but the forecast is not one-sided: he has a 61% win probability to Luciano Darderi’s 39%, with 25.4 total games expected. Tsitsipas comes into this Shanghai Round of 64 after a straight-sets win in his previous round.

Match Analysis

The forecast’s strongest lean is toward Tsitsipas in the combined serve-and-return game. Darderi has the stronger return profile and their serve profiles are nearly level, so the advantage is not a simple difference in serving strength. Recent results also favor Tsitsipas: he has won two of his last three, including a straight-sets victory over Kimmer Coppejans in Shanghai. Darderi’s standout recent result was a win over Casper Ruud in Tokyo, but Tsitsipas has the better recent record overall. He has played 76 minutes in Shanghai, while Darderi has no current-tournament court time, giving the Italian a freshness advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.4 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Luciano Darderi - Stefanos Tsitsipas) -2.4 Most likely spread: -3 (Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Darderi is projected for 6.7 aces and 3.5 double faults, compared with 8.0 aces and 2.9 double faults for Tsitsipas. Their serve profiles are close, so the ace estimates are similar, while the forecast gives Darderi the higher double-fault count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.2 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Luciano Darderi 6.7 + Stefanos Tsitsipas 8.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Luciano Darderi 3.5 + Stefanos Tsitsipas 2.9

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Luciano Darderi

Expected 6.7 aces

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 8.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Luciano Darderi

Expected 3.5 double faults

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 2.9 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Luciano Darderi's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (42.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s return strength is the clearest threat to the forecast. If he can use it to put consistent pressure on Tsitsipas’s service games, the Italian has a route to overturn the expected advantage.

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